It’s plausible, however, that if you were to poll the entire city, you might find the percentage of people who prefer Beethoven is actually at the top of the expected range, 51%, and the percentage who prefer Mozart might be at the bottom of the expected range, 49%.
Because of this possibility, when the range of values that fall within a poll’s margin of error overlap, the results of the poll are often described as a statistical tie, meaning that we cannot be sufficiently confident that one option is preferred over the other.
Aliens
60% of people have never been in a fistfight.
But among those who don’t believe aliens exist, 72% have never been in a fistfight.
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49% of people swear a lot.
But among those who don’t believe aliens exist, only 37% swear a lot.
----------------
32% of people have had to make a life-or-death decision.
But among those who don’t believe aliens exist, only 21% have had to make a life-or-death decision.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to think aliens don’t exist if you both:
oppose gay marriage
think prostitution should be illegal
NO CORRELATION
People who don’t believe aliens exist are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
have never cried over the death of someone they’ve never met
prefer little dogs
not own any leather clothing, aside from footwear or belts
All-Nighters
45% of people use the phrase a couple to mean “a few,” rather than exactly two of something.
But among those who have never pulled an all-nighter, 67% use the phrase a couple to mean “a few,” rather than exactly two of something.
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64% of people think that fooling kids into thinking that Santa is real is a harmless fib.
But among those who have never pulled an all-nighter, 82% think that fooling kids into thinking that Santa is real is a harmless fib.
----------------
20% of people prefer their application dock/dashboard to run along the side of their screen.
But among those who have never pulled an all-nighter, 37% prefer their application dock/dashboard to run along the side of their screen.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to have never pulled an all-nighter if you both:
tilt your head to the left when you go in for a kiss
don’t have a long commute
NO CORRELATION
People who have never pulled an all-nighter are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
be dog lovers
regularly clip coupons
be more likely to splurge on where they stay than where they eat while on vacation
Bananas
53% of people prefer lemonade to iced tea.
But among those who don’t like bananas, 71% prefer lemonade to iced tea.
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74% of people like pumpkin pie.
But among those who don’t like bananas, only 57% like pumpkin pie.
----------------
24% of people say they have curly hair.
But among those who don’t like bananas, 39% have curly hair.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to dislike bananas if you both:
think of soup as only a cold-weather food
don’t like guacamole
NO CORRELATION
People who don’t like bananas are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
think a moat is a more important feature in a castle than secret passages
prefer a neat-freak roommate over a messy one
be good at remembering the words to songs
Best Friends
38% of people regularly use an RSS reader.
But among those who don’t have a best friend, 51% regularly use an RSS reader.
----------------
51% of people say their favorite kind of melon is not watermelon.
But among those who don’t have a best friend, 63% say their favorite kind of melon is not watermelon.
----------------
74% of people prefer Alex P. Keaton of Family Ties to Mike Seaver of Growing Pains.
But among those who don’t have a best friend, 85% prefer Alex P. Keaton of Family Ties to Mike Seaver of Growing Pains.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to not have a best friend if you both:
aren’t interested in sign language
trust professional critics’ movie recommendations more than those of your friends
NO CORRELATION
People who don’t have a best friend are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
say their political opinions are substantially different from those of their parents
rather see increased funding to the arts than to the sciences
like white pizza
Big Government vs. Big Business
23% of people think climate change is not caused by humans.
But among those who dislike Big Government more than Big Business, 49% think climate change is not caused by humans.
----------------
49% of people think a woman should take her husband’s last name.
But among those who dislike Big Government more than Big Business, 68% think a woman should take her husband’s last name.
----------------
54% of people have a neutral or positive opinion about homeschooling.
But among those who dislike Big Government more than Big Business, 66% have a neutral or positive opinion about homeschooling.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to dislike Big Government more than Big Business if you both:
oppose embryonic stem cell research
are confused by modern art
NO CORRELATION
People who dislike Big Government more than Big Business are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
like marshmallows in their hot chocolate
take pleasure in putting things in order
say they’d rather ride a roller coaster than a waterslide
Black Friday
25% of people find QR codes useful.
But among those who join in the Black Friday shopping frenzy, 44% find QR codes useful.
----------------
46% of people think fireworks displays are better when they’re set to music.
But among those who join in the Black Friday shopping frenzy, 62% think fireworks displays are better when they’re set to music.
----------------
56% of people would be more likely to be police officers than firefighters.
But among those who join in the Black Friday shopping frenzy, 70% would be more likely to be police officers than firefighters.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to join in the Black Friday shopping frenzy if you both:
are more likely to sleep on your left side
would rather host the Academy Awards than the Grammys
NO CORRELATION
People who join in the Black Friday shopping frenzy are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
have collected unemployment
think sunrise is more beautiful than sunset
be content with their present financial situation
Blind Dates
39% of people have business cards.
But among those who have been on blind dates, 56% have business cards.
----------------
&
nbsp; 38% of people have been cheated on.
But among those who have been on blind dates, 54% have been cheated on.
----------------
49% of people prefer Steven over Stephen.
But among those who have been on blind dates, 65% prefer Steven over Stephen.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to have been on a blind date if you both:
are a teacher
have served as a best man or maid of honor
NO CORRELATION
People who have been on blind dates are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
prefer sprinkles on their ice cream cones
wash their own cars
prefer cushioned toilet seats
Blind vs. Deaf
21% of people write poetry.
But among those who would rather be blind than deaf, 36% write poetry.
----------------
32% of people can play a stringed instrument.
But among those who would rather be blind than deaf, 47% can play a stringed instrument.
----------------
75% of people aren’t picky about foods touching each other on their dinner plate.
But among those who would rather be blind than deaf, 88% aren’t picky about foods touching each other on their dinner plate.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to prefer being blind to being deaf if you both:
describe yourself as a good singer
prefer okay over OK
NO CORRELATION
People who would rather be blind than deaf are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
dislike their neighbors
prefer ibuprofen to acetaminophen for minor pain
like Jerry Seinfeld
Blood
42% of people are afraid of heights.
But among those who are disturbed by the sight of blood, 57% are afraid of heights.
----------------
64% of people get more fired up about politics than about religion.
But among those who are disturbed by the sight of blood, 77% get more fired up about politics than religion.
----------------
35% of people have donated to a political campaign.
But among those who are disturbed by the sight of blood, 48% have donated to a political campaign.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to be disturbed by the sight of blood if you both:
prefer little dogs to big dogs
say that your ability to play sports is lower than your interest in sports
NO CORRELATION
People who are disturbed by the sight of blood are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
like butter on their movie popcorn
be up to date on their tetanus shots
like spicy food
STATISTICS 101: CONFIDENCE LEVELS
When the results of a poll are released, pollsters ordinarily include the margin of error (see page 7), which depends on a concept called statistical confidence.
Basically, the more confident you want to be in your results, the greater margin of error you need to allow.
For instance, suppose a poll of 1,000 people shows that 45% admire Teddy Roosevelt more than Franklin D. Roosevelt. Using a confidence level of 95%, we can determine that the margin of error is plus or minus 3%.
The confidence level of 95% means that if you were to repeat your poll 20 times, you would expect the results to fall within the margin of error in 19 of 20 cases (95% of the time).
Although pollsters ordinarily use a confidence level of 95%, it’s possible to use other values, such as a more stringent 99%. In the example here, if you want to be 99% confident that your margin of error is wide enough, you’d need a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.
Body Piercings
53% of people like punk rock.
But among those with body piercings, 82% like punk rock.
----------------
35% of people get stressed about the holidays.
But among those with body piercings, 62% get stressed about the holidays.
----------------
24% of people have deployed a fire extinguisher.
But among those with body piercings, 50% have deployed a fire extinguisher.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to have body piercings if you both:
have tattoos
like heavy metal
NO CORRELATION
People with body piercings are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
think it should be legal for two siblings to marry if they intend to not have children
always tip a server, even when the service is poor
Bowling Skills
52% of people aren’t easily startled.
But among those who are good at bowling, 66% aren’t easily startled.
----------------
28% of people say their family considers them to be a black sheep.
But among those who are good at bowling, only 15% say their family considers them to be a black sheep.
----------------
46% of people are good tree climbers.
But among those who are good at bowling, 57% are good tree climbers.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to be good at bowling if you both:
are a good Frisbee thrower
don’t have to have the last word in an argument
NO CORRELATION
People who are good at bowling are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
like the smell of gasoline
be bad dancers
prefer giving family members funny greeting cards, rather than serious ones
Boycotting
32% of people say they have a lot of Jewish friends.
But among those who have never boycotted a company, only 18% say they have a lot of Jewish friends.
----------------
46% of people are willing to pay more for organic foods.
But among those who have never boycotted a company, only 32% are willing to pay more for organic foods.
----------------
57% of people say they are more likely to clam up than talk too much when they’re around someone they’re attracted to.
But among those who have never boycotted a company, 70% say they are more likely to clam up than talk too much when they’re around someone they’re attracted to.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely likely to have never boycotted a company if you both:
don’t get stressed about the holidays
prefer Jake Gyllenhaal’s movies to Maggie Gyllenhaal’s
NO CORRELATION
People who have never boycotted a company are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
understand HTML
have friends who are mostly of the same sex
have been thumb-suckers
Braces
45% of people have ridden on a zip line.
But among those who have worn braces, 57% have ridden on a zip line.
----------------
64% of people think New Yorkers are cooler than Los Angelenos.
But among those who have worn braces, 75% think New Yorkers are cooler than Los Angelenos.
----------------
72% of people say they have lighter skin than others of their ethnicity.
But among those who have worn braces, 82% say they have lighter skin than others of their ethnicity.
DOUBLE PLAY
You’re extremely like
ly to have worn braces if you both:
like Bert more than Ernie
think the government should stop conferring marriages, leaving that to private institutions, and issue only civil unions instead
NO CORRELATION
People who have worn braces are almost exactly as likely as the average person to:
have honked for a “Honk if you . . .” bumper sticker
prefer multiflavored Slurpees over single-flavored Slurpees
have attended private school
Breast Implants
45% of people have positive feelings about athletic scholarships.
But among those with a positive opinion about breast implants, 63% have positive feelings about athletic scholarships.
----------------
33% of people think the world would be worse off if people were 10% dumber but 20% kinder.
But among those with a positive opinion about breast implants, 48% think the world would be worse off if people were 10% dumber but 20% kinder.