enduring trend or something of an aberration: For a debate on this proposition, see Nils Petter Gleditsch et al., “The Decline of War,” International Studies Review 15, no. 3 (2013): 396–419.
Some judge this trend: Steven Pinker, “Violence Vanquished,” Wall Street Journal, September 24, 2011.
I am less sanguine: For a longer rebuttal of Pinker’s thesis, see Lawrence Freedman, “Stephen Pinker and the Long Peace: Alliance, Deterrence, and Decline,” Cold War History 14, no. 4 (2014): 657–72.
Internal Instability and War Within Countries
There is no evidence: David Armitage, Civil Wars: A History of Ideas (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2017).
1.5 billion—live in fragile states: OECD, International Engagement in Fragile States: Can’t We Do Better? (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2011), doi.org/10.1787/9789264086128-en.
weak state from a failed state: Gerald B. Helman and Steven R. Ratner, “Saving Failed States,” Foreign Policy (Winter 1992–1993): 3–20.
Vulnerable countries: For further elaboration on these themes, see Acemoglu and Robinson, Why Nations Fail.
civil wars are more frequent: Jeffrey Dixon, “What Causes Civil Wars? Integrating Quantitative Research Findings,” International Studies Review 11, no. 4 (December 2009): 707–35.
Other traits that suggest: Dixon, “What Causes Civil Wars?”
civil wars ended by negotiation: Monica Duffy Toft, “Ending Civil Wars: A Case for Rebel Victory?,” International Security 34, no. 4 (Spring 2010): 7–36.
sow the seeds of stability: Edward N. Luttwak, “Give War a Chance,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 1999, 36–44.
The Liberal World Order
Much has been said and written: For a defense of the liberal world order, see Daniel Deudney and G. John Ikenberry, “Liberal World: The Resilient Order,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2018; and G. John Ikenberry, Liberal Leviathan: The Origins, Crisis, and Transformation of the American World Order (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 2011). For a more skeptical take, see Graham Allison, “The Myth of the Liberal Order: From Historical Accident to Conventional Wisdom,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2018. This final chapter draws on my essay “How a World Order Ends: And What Comes in Its Wake,” Foreign Affairs, January/February 2019.
United States get its own house in order: I wrote about this at length in my book Foreign Policy Begins at Home: The Case for Putting America’s House in Order (New York: Basic Books, 2013).
Far higher percentage of GDP: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) tracks military expenditure as a percentage of GDP from 1949 to the present. During the Cold War (1949–1991), the U.S. defense budget averaged approximately 7.3 percent of its GDP. In 1952 and 1953, defense spending topped 13 percent of U.S. GDP. In 2018, U.S. defense spending stood at 3.2 percent of GDP, or less than half the Cold War average. See SIPRI, “SIPRI Military Expenditure Database,” https://www.sipri.org/databases/milex.
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
INDEX
The page numbers in this index refer to the printed version of this book. The link provided will take you to the beginning of that print page. You may need to scroll forward from that location to find the corresponding reference on your e-reader.
Note: Page numbers in italics indicate illustrations and maps.
Abyssinia (Ethiopia), 23
Acheson, Dean, 34
Adams, John Quincy, 14
Afghanistan, 41, 47, 55–56, 62, 106–10, 124, 166, 196, 259, 281, 291, 295
Africa (sub-Saharan), 131–42, 132
development, 136–37, 241, 244–45
economics, 136–38
geopolitics, 136, 161
and global health issues, 138, 210
historical background, 133–36
people and society, 138–39, 139
politics, 139–41
regional institutions, 141
terrorism, 169
and UN Security Council, 275
See also specific countries
African Continental Free Trade Area, 138
African National Congress (ANC), 135, 140
African Union (AU), 141
Alawites, 113, 126
Albania, 32–33, 44
Algeria, 134
alliances, 12, 14, 36, 44, 67, 70, 72, 77–78, 89, 105, 219, 264–69, 287, 300
al-Qaeda, 47, 108–9, 130, 168–69, 259
America First movement, 26
American Civil War, 291
American War of Independence, 10
Americas, 143–53, 144
contemporary issues, 150–51
geopolitics, 154
historical background, 147
overview, 143–47
politics, 146–47
violence and crime, 146, 146, 151
See also specific countries
Amnesty International, 260
Anarchical Society, The (Bull), 254–55
Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, 37
Antidumping Code, 223
apartheid, 134–35
appeasement, 23–24, 27, 265
Arabian Gulf, 112
Arabian Peninsula, 112
Arab League, 128
Arab nationalism, 117
Arab Spring, 54, 125–29
Arctic region, 63
Argentina, 55, 146, 150–51
arms control agreements, 37, 49, 72, 177, 255, 279, 296, 300
“Asian Tigers,” 88–89, 89
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), 84
Assad, Bashar al-, 126
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), 84
Australia, 82, 89, 91, 109–10, 194
Austria, 7–8, 22, 24
Austria-Hungary, 11–12, 14, 280
authoritarianism and autocracy, 22–23, 39, 45–46, 54–56, 82, 87, 90, 99, 102, 113–14, 122, 125, 146–48, 297, 300, 302
Bahrain, 112, 125
balance of power, 8, 12, 26–27, 72, 130, 253, 255, 262–63, 270, 296
Balkans, 12, 67, 78
Bangladesh, 62, 97, 102, 104–5, 110, 185, 196
population density, 103
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 238
Bay of Pigs invasion, 148–49
Belgium, 19, 24, 71, 133–34
Belt and Road Initiative, 91, 110
Berlin blockade and airlift, 33, 40
Berlin Wall, 38, 41–43, 45
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), 101
bin Laden, Osama, 170–71. See also al-Qaeda
biological weapons, 170, 173, 283
bipolar/bipolarity, 39, 263
Bismarck, Otto von, 8, 13, 303
Boko Haram, 141, 168
Bosnia, 73
Brazil, 55, 145–46, 151, 153, 186
Bretton Woods Conference, 232
Brexit, 54–55, 75, 81
Brezhnev, Leonid, 38
Brezhnev Doctrine, 38
Britain. See Great Britain and the United Kingdom
Bulgaria, 32–33, 44
Bull, Hedley, 254–55
Bush, George H. W., 42, 45–46, 94, 123
Bush, George W., 109, 124
Camp David Accords, 262
Canada, 143, 145, 151–53, 194, 199, 226, 276, 302
cap and trade agreements, 51–52, 189
carbon dioxide emissions, 51–52, 183–84, 186–89
carbon tax, 189
Carter, Jimmy, 38–39
Castro, Fidel, 148
Catalonia, 289
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 213
Central African Republic, 140, 294
Central America, 146, 150, 198, 295. See also specific countrie
s
Central Asia, 44, 55, 63, 99, 100
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), 148
chemical weapons, 16, 123, 126, 170, 173, 267, 283
Chiang Kai-shek, 85
Chile, 146
China
and the Americas, 145–46
and Asian geopolitics, 91–96
and Asian regional history, 82, 84–87
Civil War, 85
and climate change, 186, 188, 190
Cultural Revolution, 90
and cyber policy, 203
and development, 240–41, 243, 246–47
early twentieth century history, 23
and economic interdependence theory, 273
economic reform and growth, 90–91
and global governance, 274, 275, 276
Great Leap Forward, 90
and Korean War, 34, 40, 85–86
and liberal world order, 296–97, 299, 300–301, 302
and migration, 195
and monetary policy, 232, 234, 234, 237–38
nineteenth century history, 9
and nuclear program, 174–77, 179, 180
and responsibility to protect (R2P) doctrine, 47, 259
Sino-American relations, 49–51, 57, 93–94, 203, 218–19
and South Asian geopolitics, 106, 109–10
and sub-Saharan Africa, 136
and Taiwan, 92–93, 261, 273
and trade relations, 216, 218, 220, 222–23
and Vietnam War, 34–35, 86–87
and World War II, 28
Churchill, Winston, 16, 24, 30, 33, 264, 274
civil wars, 286, 288, 291–94
Clausewitz, Carl von, 282
Clemenceau, Georges, 18
climate change, 51–52, 56–58, 183–92, 185, 191, 198, 245, 301. See also global warming
Clinton, Bill, 77
coal power, 183, 186, 188
Cold War, 29–42
alliances, 266, 268 (see also North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO); Warsaw Pact)
and the Americas, 145–46, 148, 150
and Asian regional history, 85, 86
and development, 243, 245
end of, 41–42
and European regional history, 72
major tests of, 33–35
managing superpower rivalry, 36–40
and Middle East regional history, 117–18
and nuclear proliferation, 173–74, 176
origins of, 18, 28–33
and South Asia, 105
and sub-Saharan Africa, 133–36
Colombia, 55, 151, 169, 295
colonialism, 8, 33, 114, 133, 136, 148, 168, 241
communication technology, 56, 160, 160
Communism, 29–30, 70
Communist Party of China, 9, 88, 95
comparative advantage, 216–17
Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), 226, 279
conflict prevention, 198, 248
Congress of Vienna (Concert of Europe), 7–8, 300
containment doctrine, 32, 34
corruption, 113, 137, 140–41, 228, 246–49, 290
Crimea, 8, 49, 69, 79–80, 180, 260, 281, 294, 300. See also Ukraine
Crimean War, 8, 69, 300
cryptocurrency, 237
Cuba, 39, 148–49
Cuban missile crisis, 35, 148–49
currency manipulation, 219, 222–23, 225, 297
cyber security and warfare, 52–53, 129, 176, 201–7, 282
Cyprus, 67, 293
Czechoslovakia, 19, 24, 32–33, 38, 44
Czech Republic, 78
Dayton Accords, 73
decolonization, 33, 136, 262, 299
deforestation, 186
De Gaulle, Charles, 267
De Klerk, F. W., 135
democracy and democratization, 28, 29–31, 44, 54–56, 72–73, 81, 88–90, 124, 139–40, 146, 270–72, 271, 272, 292
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. See North Korea
Democratic Republic of the Congo, 134, 140, 294
demographic shifts
and challenges of post–Cold War Europe, 76
and climate change, 185
and development, 244–45
and East Asia, 95
impact on regions of the world, 63–64
and the Middle East, 112–14
population density in South Asia, 103
and South Asian regional dynamics, 101
and sub-Saharan Africa, 139
Deng Xiaoping, 50, 90
d’Estaing, Valéry Giscard, 237
détente, 40
deterrence, 37, 175, 180, 206, 262–63, 287, 296
developing countries, 39–40, 50, 189–90, 196, 209, 211, 240, 244
development, 240–50, 242
Diaoyu Islands, 91. See also Senkaku Islands
Dien Bien Phu, 34, 86
diplomacy, 135, 254–55, 258, 278, 292–93
Doctors Without Borders, 260
Doha Round of trade negotiations, 225
dumping, 223, 225
East Asia and the Pacific, 53, 82–96, 83
and Asian economic miracle, 88–90
geopolitics of, 91–95
historical background, 85–88
prospects for, 95–96
See also specific countries
East China Sea, 91–92
Eastern Europe, 19, 31–33, 42, 70, 275, 297. See also specific countries
East Germany, 32–33, 38, 43–44
East Pakistan, 104–5, 196
Ebola, 138, 161, 210
economic interdependence, 21–22, 161, 219–20, 272–73, 286–87
education, 88, 113, 228–29, 241, 242, 244, 248–49, 290, 292
Egypt, 40, 111–12, 117–20, 125, 130, 262, 284–85
Eisenhower, Dwight, 117–18
El Salvador, 55, 150–51
embargo, 25, 282
“end of history” thesis, 81
Estonia, 33, 44
Ethiopia, 23. See also Abyssinia
euro (currency), 54, 74, 75, 233, 234, 236–37
Europe, 54–55, 67–81, 68
alliances and coalitions, 265
economic and political challenges, 75–76
and emergence on modern international system, 5–6, 9–10
and geopolitical challenges, 77–81
and Middle East regional history, 117
and migration challenge, 196–97
See also Eastern Europe; Western Europe; specific countries
European Central Bank, 54, 76
European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), 71–72, 241
European Community (EC), 71–72, 74, 241
European Union (EU), 54, 61–62, 69, 72–76, 75, 81
and cybersecurity issues, 205
and development, 241
and global governance, 275
and liberal world order, 298–99
and migration challenge, 197, 199
and sovereignty, 260
Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA), 169
exclusive economic zone, 278
export controls, 223–24
failed states, 288–92, 294
fair trade, 220
Falkland Islands (Malvinas), 150
fascism, 22–23
fiat currency, 234–35
Financial Stability Board, 238
“Finlandization,” 265
fiscal policy, 76, 231–32
5G technology, 50, 218–19
foreign aid, 105, 243, 2
47–48, 250
foreign direct investment, 159, 228
fossil fuels, 116, 183, 185–88
Fourteen Points, 17
France
and Cold War, 33–34, 39, 71, 86, 111, 117–18, 134, 267
and global governance, 274, 275, 276
and interwar period, 18, 20
and nineteenth century history, 7
and nuclear proliferation, 129, 175–77, 179, 267
and post–Cold War era, 47, 54, 75, 109–10
and World War I, 11, 14
and World War II, 28
Franco-Prussian War, 19
Franz Ferdinand, Archduke of Austria, 12, 168
free trade, 88–89, 152–53, 220, 224, 226, 296, 298
French Revolution, 7
Fukuyama, Francis, 81
Gallipoli campaign, 16
Gandhi, Mahatma, 104
Gates Foundation, 213
Gaza Strip, 118, 119, 120–21
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), 216, 223–25, 296
General Data Protection Regulation, 205
Geneva Peace Conference, 86
genocide, 28, 35, 46, 56, 140, 258–59, 297
geoeconomics, 118
geo-engineering, 191–92
geopolitics, 77–81, 91–95, 105–6, 121–30, 136, 145, 161
Georgia, 33, 44, 67, 79, 281
Germany
and Cold War, 31, 33, 43–44, 69–71
and global governance, 275, 276
and interwar period, 18–19
and monetary policy, 230–32, 236
and nineteenth century history, 8–9, 69
and nuclear proliferation, 129, 177
and post–Cold War era, 76
and World War I, 11–18
and World War II, 21–28, 115, 265, 280
global financial crisis (2008-2009), 48, 161, 216, 237–38, 299
global governance, 163–64, 189, 204, 273–76
global health, 208–14, 212
globalization, 157–58, 159–65, 160, 208, 217–18, 239, 273, 297–99, 301
global supply chain, 217–20, 219
global warming, 186, 191, 210. See also climate change
Golan Heights, 118, 119
gold standard, 234–35
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 42
Great Britain and the United Kingdom
and Afghanistan, 107
and Cold War, 30–31, 33, 39
colonialism and decolonization, 8–10, 33, 97, 104, 133
and European regional history, 7, 74–75
Falkland War, 150