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index
Abelson, Robert, 168
accidents.
See safety
acquired immune deficiency syndrome, 216, 227
Adair, Douglass, 159
air quality, 215–16
Alexander, Hugh, 71, 82, 83
American Statistical Association, 117, 135
American Telephone and Telegraph Company, x, 40–42, 243–44
Anderson, John R., 247–48
Andrews, Frank A., 187–190, 193, 197–200, 202
Andrews, Harry C., 218
Anscombe, Frank R., 166, 169, 173
anti-Semitism, 143–44
Aoki, Masanao, 205,
Aronson, Gerald J., 126–27
arifical intelligence, 81, 250–51
artillary 28, 29, 38, 63, 72–73, 80, 116
asteroids 209,
astronomy 14, 16–18, 19, 21, 28, 32–33, 36–37,
AT&T Labs, 243–44
Automatic Target Recognition (ATM),241
automobile insurance, 95
averages, 130–32
Bailey Arthur L., 91–96, 120, 125,131
Bailey, Helen, 91
Bailey, Robert A., 95
Bailey, William O., 174
Banburismus 66–72, 75, 80
Barnard George A., 69, 132
Barnett, Otto, 135
Bayes, Thomas: Bayes’ rule discovered by, ix, 3, 6–10, 22, 130
in dictionary, 215, 225
life and death of, 3–5
portrait of, 259
life and death date of, 259
Bayes’ Factor,116
Bayesian inference, 129–30.
See also inverse probability
Bayes’ rule: abandonment of, 9–10, 11, 12, 37–38, 40, 61, 86–88, 176, 213
acceptance of, ix, xi, 3, 45–46, 107, 134–36, 161–62, 175, 181, 203, 216–17, 221–22, 224–25, 232, 233–35, 250–51
Bayes’ Factor, 116
Bayesian inference, 129–30
belief in, ix, xi, 8, 11, 233–34
cause-and-effect and, 5–6, 11
computation and, 134, 139–40, 159–61, 177–78, 195
disagreement about, ix, x–xi, 3, 8–9, 35–38, 57, 105–6, 129–36, 176–78
discovery of, ix–x, 3, 6–10, 20–22, 23, 31–32, 129–30, 142, 143, 176
empirical Bayes, 129, 134
equal probabilities in, 8–9, 21, 22, 23, 36–37, 87
experience in, ix, xi, 6–9, 11
frequentism compared empirically, 157–58, 159–61
data in, ix, xi, 6–9, 11, 23, 53–54, 156, 234
institutional support for, 134–35, 177, 178, 213–14, 220, 221–22, 224–25
integration of functions in, 134
inverse probability in, 6–10, 11
likelihood in, 8
name of, ix–x, 11, 12, 32, 36
objectivity and, ix, x, 8, 11
as philosophy, 3, 97, 105–6, 116–17, 123, 147–48, 253–54
posteriors in, 8
practical applications for, generally, 139–40, 209
priors in, 8, 31–32, 87, 139
probability in, 6–9, 11, 233–34
publications of, 9–11, 12, 20, 22, 93, 110
secrecy about, 3, 42, 83–86, 168–69, 170–71, 173, 213, 224
statements of, ix, 8, 11–12, 20, 23, 31–32, 41
subjectivity and, ix, x, 8
terminology of, 8
unified approach and, 170
varieties of, 129:
belief: in Bayes’rule, generally, ix, xi, 8,11, 233–34
insurance and, 93
probability and, 36, 51–52, 156, 233–34.
See also intuition
subjectivity
Bell, E. T., 34
Bell, Robert M., 243–44
Bell, Laboratories, 40, 67, 76–77
Bell, telephone systems, x, 40–42
Berger, James O., 56, 177, 178, 236
Barkely, George, 4
Berkson, Joseph, 112
Bernardo, José M., 220
Bernoulli, Jakob, 121
Berthollet, Claude, 30
Bertillon, Alphonse, 38–39
Bertrand, Joseph Louis François, 38, 73
Besag, Julian, 218 biology.
See genetic science
medicine
Birch, Frank, 66, 70
Birnbaum, Allan, 132
Blackwell, David, 88, 232
Bletchley Park, 65–66, 71–72, 73–74, 82, 83–84.
See also Enigma code
Blinder, Alan S., 237
blood pressure, 115–16
Blunt, Anthony, 85, 86
bombes, 65–67, 70–72, 74, 75–76, 80
Borel, Émile, 51–52, 67, 103
Bouvard, Alexis, 32
Box, George E. P., 51, 130–34, 169, 176, 177
brain, xi, 248–51
Bretthorst, Larry, 227
Brezhnev, Leonid, 196–97
Brillinger, David R., 168, 170, 172, 173, 174
Brinkley, David, 163
Brown, Emery N., 248–49
Brown, Gordon, 86
Brown, Peter F., 237, 245–47
Brown, Tommy, 75
Buchanan, Chester L., 198, 201, 202
Bucy, Richard, 205
BUGS, 226, 228, 229
Bühlmann, Hans, 96
Burgess, Guy, 85, 86
business, 140, 141–43, 145–53, 168, 176–77, 243–44.
See also economics
insurance
Campbell, George Ashley, 40
cancer, x, 108–9, 110–16, 227–28, 235, 255–57
Canton, John, 5
capital punishment, 28
Casella, George, 224
Cassels, Ian, 82
casualty insurance, 3, 91–96
cause-and-effect, 5–6, 9, 10–11, 19–21, 35
census, 27, 173
Central Intelligence Agency, 127, 135, 136
central limit theorem, 21, 30–31
Challenger, x, 103, 215
change points, 216–17
Chernoff, Herman, 177–78
cholesterol, x, 115–16
Chomsky, Noam, 245
Chrystal, George, 37–38
Churchill, Winston, 61, 71–72, 76, 83–84
Clairaut, Alexis Claude, 14
Clancy, Tom, 196
classification problems, 155, 242–43
Clayton, David, 221, 226
Clippy, 243
coal mines, 216–17
Cochran, William, 146
Cognitive Tutors, 247–48
Cold War: cryptography and, 83–84
military in, 215
nuclear weapons and, x, 3, 119–20, 124
Tukey in, 164–66, 173–75
Coleman, James, 146
Colossi, 74, 80–82, 83–84
communications, x, 40–42, 76–77
computation: Bayes’ rule and, generally, 139–40, 177–78
business and, 148–49
computers and, 177–78, 195, 199–200, 213–15, 219–26, 233, 234, 250–51
dimensionality and, 213–15
frequentism and, 214, 225
hierarchies and, 214–15
integration of functions and, 134
computer languages, xi, 160
computers: as brains, 250–51
Colossi, 74, 80–82, 83–84
computation and, 140, 177–78, 195, 199–200, 213–15, 219–26, 233, 234, 250–51
development of, 84–85, 99
The Federalist papers and, 157, 159–60
data and, 234, 242, 250–51
languages for, xi, 160
Markov chains and, 221–26
in medicine, 135
priors and, 242, 243–44
by Radio Corporation of America, 163, 167, 172, 173
at RAND Corporation, 125
search and, 197, 199–200
software for, 226, 228, 229, 242–45, 247–48
statistics and, 167, 225
uncertainty and, 234
computer software, 226, 228, 229, 242–45, 247–48
Condorcet, Marquis de, 18, 23, 27, 29, 37
conjugate priors, 125, 148, 149
Cook, James, 18
Coolidge, Julian L., 46
Copernicus, Nicolaus, 16
Cornfield, Jerome: 108–118, 154, 166, 168, 174
Cournot, Antoine-Augustin, 121
Cox, Gertrude, 88
Craven, John Piña: 183–88, 191–203
Credibility, 44–45, 94–96
Cromwell’s Rule, 123
cryptography, 73–74, 99–100, 135–36, 164–65, 173–75, 245.
See also Enigma code
Curie, Marie, 51
curse of high dimensionality, 214
Dale, Andrew I., 8
d’Alembert, Jean Le Rond, 15–19
Darwin, Charles Galton, 85
Darwin, Leonard, 47
data: in astronomy, 17–18, 19, 21
in Bayes’ rule, generally, ix, xi, 6–9, 11, 23, 53–54, 156, 234
brains and, 248–50
business and, 142, 147–48
in communications, 76–77
computers and, 234, 242, 250–51
election results and, 171, 172, 173
finance and, 237–38
gender and, 26
insurance and, 93
inverse probability and, 36, 53–54
Laplace and, 17–18, 24
likelihood principle and, 104, 132
in mathematics, 19
objectivity and, 103
probability and, 36, 50, 55–56
quantities of, 67, 77
search for, 246, 247
speech recognition and, 246
in statistics, 49–50, 103, 167
subjectivity and, 103
telephone systems and, 39
David, Florence Nightingale, 34–35
Dawid, A. Philip, 214, 239
de Buffon, Comte, 25
decision theory, 57–58, 236–37
decision trees, 148–49, 180
de Finetti, Bruno: influence of, 103, 148
insurance and, 95–96
Lindley on, 57
Nobel Prize and, 236
prediction by, 178
probability and, 233–34
publication by, 87, 220
subjectivity and, 52, 58, 67–68
DeGroot, Morris H., 134, 220
Delambre, Jean-Baptiste, 29
Deming, W. Edwards, 110, 130, 176
de Moivre, Abraham, 6, 19
de Morgan, Augustus, 34
Dempster, Arthur P., 221
Denniston, Alastair G., 70
Dewey, Thomas, 154
Diaconis, Persi, 159, 161, 178, 219, 232, 240, 251
dictionary, 215, 225
diesel engines, 215–16
Digital Sandbox, 241
dimensionality, 213–15
Discenza, Joseph H., 204
disease. See medicine
DNA. See genetic science
Dodds, Harry W., 154
Doeblin, Wolfgang, 64
Doenitz, Karl, 69
Doll, Richard, 109, 111, 112
Dreyfus, Alfred, x, 3, 38–39
Driscoll, Agnes Meyer, 75
Dulles, John Foster, 154
DuMouchel, William H., 215–16
Earth, x, 54
earthquakes, x, 54–58, 164
e-commerce, xi, 243–44
economics, 135, 236–38.
See also business education, 4, 13–14, 158–59, 165–66, 247–48
Edwards, Ward, 133
Efron, Bradley, 178, 234
Eisenhower, Dwight, 81, 119, 179
elections, x, 154, 163–64, 166–73, 174–75
e-mail, xi, 242–43, 244–45
empirical Bayes, 129, 134
Encyclopaedia Britannica, 34, 40
Encyclopédie, 15
Enigma code: Banburismus and, 66–72, 75, 80
Bayes’ rule applied to, x, 3, 66–69, 73–74, 75–76
bombes and, 65–67, 70–72, 74, 75–76, 80
breaking of, x, 3, 75, 80
codebooks for, 70–71, 75
development of, 62–63
hypotheses and, 66–68, 75–76
inverse probability and, 68–69
mathematics and, 62, 63
operation of, 62, 70
probability and, 66–67
after Second World War, 83–84, 100–101
subjectivit
y and, 67–68
Tukey works on, 174
Turing works on, x, 3, 65–72, 74, 75–77
U-boats and, 61–62, 65–66, 69–70, 71, 74–75, 77, 80, 84.
See also JN-25 code
Tunny-Lorenz codes
epidemiology, 108–18, 215–16
equal probabilities: astronomy and, 36–37
in Bayes’ rule, generally, 8–9, 21, 22, 23, 36–37, 87
cryptography and, 99–100
The Federalist papers and, 157, 161
Fisher and, 48, 133–34
gender and, 25
military and, 38, 73, 241
statistics and, 50
Essen-Möller, Erik, 52–53
Estienne, Jean Baptiste Eugène, 39–40
eugenics, 45–48
experience, ix, xi, 5, 6–9, 11
experimental design, 117
expert opinion, 149–50, 179, 185–86
exploratory data analysis, 170
Fasson, Anthony, 75
federal government, 110–11.
See also individual agencies
The Federalist papers, 3, 155–58, 159–61, 243
Federal Reserve, 236–37
Feldstein, Martin, 236–37
Fermi, Enrico, 102, 176, 222
Feynman, Richard, 102–3
fiducial probability, 132, 133, 170
Fienberg, Stephen, 165, 168
filters, xi, 205, 225, 240–41, 242–45, 248–49
finance. See economics
First World War, 39–40, 62
Fisher, Ronald Aylmer: cancer and, 112–13, 116
equal probabilities and, 133–34
fiducial probability and, 132, 133
frequentism and, generally, 45, 46–48, 49–51, 53–54, 234
at Graduate School, 110
on impossibility, 121
influence of, 87–88, 92, 94, 141, 147, 178
intuition and, 101
Jeffreys and, 55–58
likelihood principle of, 47, 53, 92, 233
Lindley and, 133
Neyman and, 98–99
nuclear weapons and, 121
priors and, 129
Second World War and, 64
Tukey and, 169–70
fisheries, 209, 230–31
Fleming, Ian, 70–71
Flowers, Thomas H., 81, 82
Food and Drug Administration, 228–29
forensic science, 235–36
Fox, Robert, 35
Franco, Francisco, 190, 194
French Revolution, 29, 35–36
frequentism: Bayes’ rule accepted in, 233–34
Bayes’ rule compared empirically, 157–58, 159–61
business and, 141, 142
change points and, 216–17
computation and, 214, 225
Cornfield and, 116–17
decision theory and, 236
dimensionality and, 214
expert opinion and, 179
The Federalist papers and, 157–58, 159–61