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    The Theory That Would Not Die

    Page 40
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      Pouget A et al. (2009) Neural Computations as Laplacian (or is it Bayesian?) probabilistic inference. In draft.

      Quatse JT, Najmi A. (2007) Empirical Bayesian targeting. Proceedings, 2007 World Congress in Computer Science, Computer Engineering, and Applied Computing, June 25–28, 2007.

      Schafer JB, Konstan J, Riedl J. (1999) Recommender systems in E-commerce. In ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce (EC-99) 158–66.

      Schafer JB, Konstan J, Riedl J. (2001) Recommender systems in E-commerce. Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery (5) 115–53.

      Schneider, Stephen H. (2005) The Patient from Hell. Perseus Books.

      Spolsky, Joel. (2005) (http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2005/10/17.html). Swinburne, Richard, ed. (2002) Bayes’s Theorem. Oxford University Press.

      Taylor BL et al. (2000) Incorporating uncertainty into management models for marine mammals. Conservation Biology (14) 1243–52.

      Unwin, Stephen D. (2003) The Probability of God: A Simple Calculation that Proves the Ultimate Proof. Random House.

      Wade, Paul R. (1999) A comparison of statistical methods for fitting population models to data. In Marine Mammal Survey and Assessment Methods, eds., Garner et al. Rotterdam: AA Balkema.

      ———. (2000) Bayesian methods in conservation biology. Conservation Biology (14) 1308–16.

      ———. (2001) Conservation of exploited species in an uncertain world: Novel methods and the failure of traditional techniques. In Conservation of Exploited Species, eds., JD Reynolds et al. Cambridge University Press. 110–44.

      Weaver, Warren. (1955) Translation. In Machine Translation of Languages: Fourteen Essays, eds., WN Locke, AD Booth. MIT Technology Press and John Wiley.

      ———. (1963) Lady Luck: The Theory of Probability. Dover Publications.

      Westerfield, H. Bradford, ed. (1995) Inside CIA’s Private World: Declassified Articles from the Agency’s Internal Journal, 1955–1992. Yale University Press.

      Wolpert DM, Ghahramani Z. (2005) Bayes’ rule in perception, action, and cognition. In The Oxford Companion to the Mind, ed., Gregory RL. Oxford Reference OnLine.

      Wolpert DM. (December 8, 2005) The puppet master: How the brain controls the body. Francis Crick Lecture, Royal Society. Online.

      Zellner, Arnold. (2006) Bayesian econometrics: Past, present and future. HGB Alexander Research Foundation, University of Chicago. Paper 0607.

      Appendixes

      Campbell, Michael J. (2008) The doctor sees the light. Significance (5:4) 172.

      Frith, Chris. (2007) Making Up The Mind: How the Brain Creates our Mental World. Blackwell.

      Elmore Joann G et al. (April 16, 1998) Ten-year risk of false positive screening mammograms and clinical breast examinations. New England Journal of Medicine (338:16) 1089–96.

      Kerlikowske Karla et al. (November 24, 1993) Positive predictive value of screening mammography by age and family history of breast cancer. JAMA (270: 20) 2444–50.

      Kolata, Gina (November 23, 2009) Behind cancer guidelines, quest for data. New York Times.

      National Cancer Institute (2009) Breast cancer screening: harms of screening. Accessed October 16 2009. pp. 1–4.

      Weaver DL et al. (2006) Pathologic findings from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium: population-based outcomes in women undergoing biopsy after screening mammography. Cancer (106) 732. Cited in Fletcher, Suzanne W. (2010) Screening for breast cancer. www.uptodate.com

      index

      Abelson, Robert, 168

      accidents.

      See safety

      acquired immune deficiency syndrome, 216, 227

      Adair, Douglass, 159

      air quality, 215–16

      Alexander, Hugh, 71, 82, 83

      American Statistical Association, 117, 135

      American Telephone and Telegraph Company, x, 40–42, 243–44

      Anderson, John R., 247–48

      Andrews, Frank A., 187–190, 193, 197–200, 202

      Andrews, Harry C., 218

      Anscombe, Frank R., 166, 169, 173

      anti-Semitism, 143–44

      Aoki, Masanao, 205,

      Aronson, Gerald J., 126–27

      arifical intelligence, 81, 250–51

      artillary 28, 29, 38, 63, 72–73, 80, 116

      asteroids 209,

      astronomy 14, 16–18, 19, 21, 28, 32–33, 36–37,

      AT&T Labs, 243–44

      Automatic Target Recognition (ATM),241

      automobile insurance, 95

      averages, 130–32

      Bailey Arthur L., 91–96, 120, 125,131

      Bailey, Helen, 91

      Bailey, Robert A., 95

      Bailey, William O., 174

      Banburismus 66–72, 75, 80

      Barnard George A., 69, 132

      Barnett, Otto, 135

      Bayes, Thomas: Bayes’ rule discovered by, ix, 3, 6–10, 22, 130

      in dictionary, 215, 225

      life and death of, 3–5

      portrait of, 259

      life and death date of, 259

      Bayes’ Factor,116

      Bayesian inference, 129–30.

      See also inverse probability

      Bayes’ rule: abandonment of, 9–10, 11, 12, 37–38, 40, 61, 86–88, 176, 213

      acceptance of, ix, xi, 3, 45–46, 107, 134–36, 161–62, 175, 181, 203, 216–17, 221–22, 224–25, 232, 233–35, 250–51

      Bayes’ Factor, 116

      Bayesian inference, 129–30

      belief in, ix, xi, 8, 11, 233–34

      cause-and-effect and, 5–6, 11

      computation and, 134, 139–40, 159–61, 177–78, 195

      disagreement about, ix, x–xi, 3, 8–9, 35–38, 57, 105–6, 129–36, 176–78

      discovery of, ix–x, 3, 6–10, 20–22, 23, 31–32, 129–30, 142, 143, 176

      empirical Bayes, 129, 134

      equal probabilities in, 8–9, 21, 22, 23, 36–37, 87

      experience in, ix, xi, 6–9, 11

      frequentism compared empirically, 157–58, 159–61

      data in, ix, xi, 6–9, 11, 23, 53–54, 156, 234

      institutional support for, 134–35, 177, 178, 213–14, 220, 221–22, 224–25

      integration of functions in, 134

      inverse probability in, 6–10, 11

      likelihood in, 8

      name of, ix–x, 11, 12, 32, 36

      objectivity and, ix, x, 8, 11

      as philosophy, 3, 97, 105–6, 116–17, 123, 147–48, 253–54

      posteriors in, 8

      practical applications for, generally, 139–40, 209

      priors in, 8, 31–32, 87, 139

      probability in, 6–9, 11, 233–34

      publications of, 9–11, 12, 20, 22, 93, 110

      secrecy about, 3, 42, 83–86, 168–69, 170–71, 173, 213, 224

      statements of, ix, 8, 11–12, 20, 23, 31–32, 41

      subjectivity and, ix, x, 8

      terminology of, 8

      uncertainty and, xi, 8

      unified approach and, 170

      varieties of, 129:

      belief: in Bayes’rule, generally, ix, xi, 8,11, 233–34

      insurance and, 93

      probability and, 36, 51–52, 156, 233–34.

      See also intuition

      subjectivity

      Bell, E. T., 34

      Bell, Robert M., 243–44

      Bell, Laboratories, 40, 67, 76–77

      Bell, telephone systems, x, 40–42

      Berger, James O., 56, 177, 178, 236

      Barkely, George, 4

      Berkson, Joseph, 112

      Bernardo, José M., 220

      Bernoulli, Jakob, 121

      Berthollet, Claude, 30

      Bertillon, Alphonse, 38–39

      Bertrand, Joseph Louis François, 38, 73

      Besag, Julian, 218 biology.

      See genetic science

      medicine

      Birch, Frank, 66, 70

      Birnbaum, Allan, 132

      Blackwell, David, 88, 232

      Bletchley Park, 65–66, 71–72, 73–74, 82, 83–84.

      See also Enigma code


      Blinder, Alan S., 237

      blood pressure, 115–16

      Blunt, Anthony, 85, 86

      bombes, 65–67, 70–72, 74, 75–76, 80

      Borel, Émile, 51–52, 67, 103

      Bouvard, Alexis, 32

      Box, George E. P., 51, 130–34, 169, 176, 177

      brain, xi, 248–51

      Bretthorst, Larry, 227

      Brezhnev, Leonid, 196–97

      Brillinger, David R., 168, 170, 172, 173, 174

      Brinkley, David, 163

      Brown, Emery N., 248–49

      Brown, Gordon, 86

      Brown, Peter F., 237, 245–47

      Brown, Tommy, 75

      Buchanan, Chester L., 198, 201, 202

      Bucy, Richard, 205

      BUGS, 226, 228, 229

      Bühlmann, Hans, 96

      Burgess, Guy, 85, 86

      business, 140, 141–43, 145–53, 168, 176–77, 243–44.

      See also economics

      insurance

      Campbell, George Ashley, 40

      cancer, x, 108–9, 110–16, 227–28, 235, 255–57

      Canton, John, 5

      capital punishment, 28

      Casella, George, 224

      Cassels, Ian, 82

      casualty insurance, 3, 91–96

      cause-and-effect, 5–6, 9, 10–11, 19–21, 35

      census, 27, 173

      Central Intelligence Agency, 127, 135, 136

      central limit theorem, 21, 30–31

      Challenger, x, 103, 215

      change points, 216–17

      Chernoff, Herman, 177–78

      cholesterol, x, 115–16

      Chomsky, Noam, 245

      Chrystal, George, 37–38

      Churchill, Winston, 61, 71–72, 76, 83–84

      Clairaut, Alexis Claude, 14

      Clancy, Tom, 196

      classification problems, 155, 242–43

      Clayton, David, 221, 226

      Clippy, 243

      coal mines, 216–17

      Cochran, William, 146

      Cognitive Tutors, 247–48

      Cold War: cryptography and, 83–84

      military in, 215

      nuclear weapons and, x, 3, 119–20, 124

      Tukey in, 164–66, 173–75

      Coleman, James, 146

      Colossi, 74, 80–82, 83–84

      communications, x, 40–42, 76–77

      computation: Bayes’ rule and, generally, 139–40, 177–78

      business and, 148–49

      computers and, 177–78, 195, 199–200, 213–15, 219–26, 233, 234, 250–51

      dimensionality and, 213–15

      frequentism and, 214, 225

      hierarchies and, 214–15

      integration of functions and, 134

      computer languages, xi, 160

      computers: as brains, 250–51

      Colossi, 74, 80–82, 83–84

      computation and, 140, 177–78, 195, 199–200, 213–15, 219–26, 233, 234, 250–51

      development of, 84–85, 99

      The Federalist papers and, 157, 159–60

      data and, 234, 242, 250–51

      languages for, xi, 160

      Markov chains and, 221–26

      in medicine, 135

      priors and, 242, 243–44

      by Radio Corporation of America, 163, 167, 172, 173

      at RAND Corporation, 125

      search and, 197, 199–200

      software for, 226, 228, 229, 242–45, 247–48

      statistics and, 167, 225

      uncertainty and, 234

      computer software, 226, 228, 229, 242–45, 247–48

      Condorcet, Marquis de, 18, 23, 27, 29, 37

      conjugate priors, 125, 148, 149

      Cook, James, 18

      Coolidge, Julian L., 46

      Copernicus, Nicolaus, 16

      Cornfield, Jerome: 108–118, 154, 166, 168, 174

      Cournot, Antoine-Augustin, 121

      Cox, Gertrude, 88

      Craven, John Piña: 183–88, 191–203

      Credibility, 44–45, 94–96

      Cromwell’s Rule, 123

      cryptography, 73–74, 99–100, 135–36, 164–65, 173–75, 245.

      See also Enigma code

      Curie, Marie, 51

      curse of high dimensionality, 214

      Dale, Andrew I., 8

      d’Alembert, Jean Le Rond, 15–19

      Darwin, Charles Galton, 85

      Darwin, Leonard, 47

      data: in astronomy, 17–18, 19, 21

      in Bayes’ rule, generally, ix, xi, 6–9, 11, 23, 53–54, 156, 234

      brains and, 248–50

      business and, 142, 147–48

      in communications, 76–77

      computers and, 234, 242, 250–51

      election results and, 171, 172, 173

      finance and, 237–38

      gender and, 26

      insurance and, 93

      inverse probability and, 36, 53–54

      Laplace and, 17–18, 24

      likelihood principle and, 104, 132

      in mathematics, 19

      objectivity and, 103

      probability and, 36, 50, 55–56

      quantities of, 67, 77

      search for, 246, 247

      speech recognition and, 246

      in statistics, 49–50, 103, 167

      subjectivity and, 103

      telephone systems and, 39

      David, Florence Nightingale, 34–35

      Dawid, A. Philip, 214, 239

      de Buffon, Comte, 25

      decision theory, 57–58, 236–37

      decision trees, 148–49, 180

      de Finetti, Bruno: influence of, 103, 148

      insurance and, 95–96

      Lindley on, 57

      Nobel Prize and, 236

      prediction by, 178

      probability and, 233–34

      publication by, 87, 220

      subjectivity and, 52, 58, 67–68

      DeGroot, Morris H., 134, 220

      Delambre, Jean-Baptiste, 29

      Deming, W. Edwards, 110, 130, 176

      de Moivre, Abraham, 6, 19

      de Morgan, Augustus, 34

      Dempster, Arthur P., 221

      Denniston, Alastair G., 70

      Dewey, Thomas, 154

      Diaconis, Persi, 159, 161, 178, 219, 232, 240, 251

      dictionary, 215, 225

      diesel engines, 215–16

      Digital Sandbox, 241

      dimensionality, 213–15

      Discenza, Joseph H., 204

      disease. See medicine

      DNA. See genetic science

      Dodds, Harry W., 154

      Doeblin, Wolfgang, 64

      Doenitz, Karl, 69

      Doll, Richard, 109, 111, 112

      Dreyfus, Alfred, x, 3, 38–39

      Driscoll, Agnes Meyer, 75

      Dulles, John Foster, 154

      DuMouchel, William H., 215–16

      Earth, x, 54

      earthquakes, x, 54–58, 164

      e-commerce, xi, 243–44

      economics, 135, 236–38.

      See also business education, 4, 13–14, 158–59, 165–66, 247–48

      Edwards, Ward, 133

      Efron, Bradley, 178, 234

      Eisenhower, Dwight, 81, 119, 179

      elections, x, 154, 163–64, 166–73, 174–75

      e-mail, xi, 242–43, 244–45

      empirical Bayes, 129, 134

      Encyclopaedia Britannica, 34, 40

      Encyclopédie, 15

      Enigma code: Banburismus and, 66–72, 75, 80

      Bayes’ rule applied to, x, 3, 66–69, 73–74, 75–76

      bombes and, 65–67, 70–72, 74, 75–76, 80

      breaking of, x, 3, 75, 80

      codebooks for, 70–71, 75

      development of, 62–63

      hypotheses and, 66–68, 75–76

      inverse probability and, 68–69

      mathematics and, 62, 63

      operation of, 62, 70

      probability and, 66–67

      after Second World War, 83–84, 100–101

      subjectivit
    y and, 67–68

      Tukey works on, 174

      Turing works on, x, 3, 65–72, 74, 75–77

      U-boats and, 61–62, 65–66, 69–70, 71, 74–75, 77, 80, 84.

      See also JN-25 code

      Tunny-Lorenz codes

      epidemiology, 108–18, 215–16

      equal probabilities: astronomy and, 36–37

      in Bayes’ rule, generally, 8–9, 21, 22, 23, 36–37, 87

      cryptography and, 99–100

      The Federalist papers and, 157, 161

      Fisher and, 48, 133–34

      gender and, 25

      military and, 38, 73, 241

      statistics and, 50

      Essen-Möller, Erik, 52–53

      Estienne, Jean Baptiste Eugène, 39–40

      eugenics, 45–48

      experience, ix, xi, 5, 6–9, 11

      experimental design, 117

      expert opinion, 149–50, 179, 185–86

      exploratory data analysis, 170

      Fasson, Anthony, 75

      federal government, 110–11.

      See also individual agencies

      The Federalist papers, 3, 155–58, 159–61, 243

      Federal Reserve, 236–37

      Feldstein, Martin, 236–37

      Fermi, Enrico, 102, 176, 222

      Feynman, Richard, 102–3

      fiducial probability, 132, 133, 170

      Fienberg, Stephen, 165, 168

      filters, xi, 205, 225, 240–41, 242–45, 248–49

      finance. See economics

      First World War, 39–40, 62

      Fisher, Ronald Aylmer: cancer and, 112–13, 116

      equal probabilities and, 133–34

      fiducial probability and, 132, 133

      frequentism and, generally, 45, 46–48, 49–51, 53–54, 234

      at Graduate School, 110

      on impossibility, 121

      influence of, 87–88, 92, 94, 141, 147, 178

      intuition and, 101

      Jeffreys and, 55–58

      likelihood principle of, 47, 53, 92, 233

      Lindley and, 133

      Neyman and, 98–99

      nuclear weapons and, 121

      priors and, 129

      Second World War and, 64

      Tukey and, 169–70

      fisheries, 209, 230–31

      Fleming, Ian, 70–71

      Flowers, Thomas H., 81, 82

      Food and Drug Administration, 228–29

      forensic science, 235–36

      Fox, Robert, 35

      Franco, Francisco, 190, 194

      French Revolution, 29, 35–36

      frequentism: Bayes’ rule accepted in, 233–34

      Bayes’ rule compared empirically, 157–58, 159–61

      business and, 141, 142

      change points and, 216–17

      computation and, 214, 225

      Cornfield and, 116–17

      decision theory and, 236

      dimensionality and, 214

      expert opinion and, 179

      The Federalist papers and, 157–58, 159–61

     


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