PRAISE FOR
The Two Koreas:
“A well-reported if unfinished story, well told by someone who has been a Korea-watcher for almost four decades. . . . Probing behind events to reveal the machinations of key politicians, generals, and bureaucrats, often re-creating the dynamics shaping their behavior, is the strength of this book. . . . Oberdorfer chronicles with impressive detail the pathos of the nuclear crisis and the freezing of North-South relations it precipitated. What emerges from The Two Koreas is a portrait of precisely why the peninsula is so volatile: two rivals competing for national legitimacy in a culture where compromise is tantamount to defeat. . . . Oberdorfer refrains from punditry and predictions, letting his powerful material tell the story.”—The Boston Globe
“[A] fine book. . . . [Oberdorfer’s] gripping narrative should chasten our leaders and inform our citizenry about the continuing perils and costs of America’s involvement with Korea. At a time when frivolous sensationalism dominates the media, [The Two Koreas] illustrates the virtues of a life given to honest, independent, inquiring journalism. . . . [It is] a detailed insider’s account of the period since President Nixon opened China. . . . Oberdorfer excels at weaving together the characters and events of the period (often ones that he covered as a reporter) with more recent interviews with major participants in Washington, Seoul, Pyongyang, Beijing and Tokyo. He also pays more attention than usual to the work of scholars on Korea. What results is not really the history of the two Koreas but of American relations with Korea in the last 25 years. Oberdorfer is often definitive on that subject, deploying information that even specialists do not know.”—Bruce Cumings, The Los Angeles Times
“Oberdorfer is one of America’s keenest analysts of the international scene.” —James A. Baker III, former U.S. Secretary of State
“An authoritative and readable work of history that will inform [Oberdorfer’s] colleagues and the public at large as they watch the future of the Cold War’s last remaining division unfold. . . . Even for those who know a lot about recent diplomacy, Oberdorfer fills in gaps, having interviewed many key participants.” —USA Today
“Though he is an old Asia hand who has made many visits to the Korean peninsula—including two to North Korea—he deliberately keeps himself out of this book. Mistrusting his impressions, Oberdorfer, a retired diplomatic correspondent for The Washington Post, researched exhaustively, conducting more than 450 interviews. The result is a comprehensive and informative . . . account of postwar Korean history, from the Korean War to the rise of democracy in the South to the nuclear-weapons crisis in the North.”—The Globe and Mail
“A most timely book to understand what could happen if North Korea implodes or attacks South Korea.”—St. Louis Post-Dispatch
“[A] fine new book. . . . Oberdorfer is the sort of well-informed and conscientious journalist with a lifetime of experience that academic specialists can learn a lot from, and general readers will find this a lively, interesting, accessible, and satisfying book. It is not quite a contemporary history of the two Koreas (there are only a few Korean voices, and large swaths of domestic Korean history are left out), but it is the best history of the past 30 years of American-Korean relations. . . . Oberdorfer pens remarkably accurate portraits of a string of South Korean presidents. . . . The Two Koreas should give pause to those who think we should fight wars to keep the instruments of war out of the wrong hands.” —Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
“Oberdorfer, veteran Washington Post diplomatic correspondent who has met every South Korean president on their home ground and every North Korean foreign minister during their annual trips to the United States, does an excellent job of filling in the blanks in our knowledge of events from 1953 until today. . . . The picture Oberdorfer presents is by no means a clear view of sweetness and light and democracy on our side, and communist tyranny and terror on their side.”—Florida Times-Union
“A fine overview of Korea’s recent past.”—Kirkus Reviews
“Combining the depth and authority of a first-rate textbook with the readability of a good novel, [The Two Koreas] has proven to be a wonderful teaching tool for instructors and students alike.”—Carter J. Eckert, Professor of Korean History, Harvard University
“A useful primer on policy.”—The Weekend Australian
“Packed with great details and anecdotes which bring the whole extraordinary saga [of the two Koreas] to life . . . [Oberdorfer] is particularly good at detailing how the South gained the military and economic upper hand from the 1980s onwards as the North’s communist backers deserted it. He sheds much light on how the Soviet Union stepped in to bankroll Kim Il-sung after China reduced its support under new leader Deng Xiaoping. And how with the Soviet Union’s collapse seven years ago, North Korea, refusing to contemplate reforms, went into economic free-fall. . . . Oberdorfer’s description of the friendship forged between [Carter and Il-sung] . . . is worth the price of the book alone. . . . [A] skillful mixture of reportage and history which opens the door to understanding what will happen next.”—South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
“Engrossing, informative, wise. A rare achievement, the best account yet of a tragically divided country.”—Ezra Vogel, Director, Asia Center, Harvard University
“Award-winning contemporary history from a veteran correspondent whose contacts book is as fat as the Old Testament. Here he traces the last 50 years of divided Korea, a tragic situation that we have all too readily learned to live with. With expert knowledge of both sides of the DMZ, Oberdorfer is able to trace common currents of Koreanness that unite the two halves. The real strength of the book is in its meticulous research about how other countries have treated Korea, a natural emphasis in the case of a country crucial to the security interests of Japan, China, Russia and the United States. . . . Oberdorfer . . . stitch[es] together a wonderful tapestry of fact and anecdote, all impeccably sourced to firsthand information from key players like Gorbachev and George Schultz. Journalism is known as the first draft of history, but this will probably stand unchallenged.”—The Daily Yomiuri (Tokyo)
Copyright © 2014 by Don Oberdorfer and Robert Carlin
Published by Basic Books,
A Member of the Perseus Books Group
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical articles and reviews. For information, address Basic Books, 250 West 57th Street, 15th Floor, New York, NY 10107.
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Designed by Pauline Brown
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Oberdorfer, Don.
The two Koreas : a contemporary history / Don Oberdorfer, Robert Carlin. —Revised and updated third edition.
pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 978-0-465-05088-8 (e-book) 1. Korea (South)—History. 2. Korea (North)—History. I. Carlin, Robert, 1947– II. Title.
DS922.2.O25 2013
951.904—dc23
2013030124
10987654321
For the people of the two Koreas May they be one again, and soon.
CONTENTS
Preface to the New Edition
Preface to the Second Edition
A Note on Korean Names
1WHERE THE WILD BIRDS SING
The Emergence of Two Koreas
War and Its Aftermath
The Origins of Negotiation
Kim Il Sung
Conversations with the South
2THE END OF THE BEGINNING
Park Chung Hee
Washington Blinks at Park’s Coup
The Impact of Yushin
3THE TROUBLE DEEPENS
Tensions Increase
The Struggle with Japan
The Underground War
Challenge from the North
Echoes of Saigon
The South Korean Nuclear Weapons Program
Murder in the Demilitarized Zone
4THE CARTER CHILL
Carter’s Withdrawal: Origins and Implementation
The View from Pyongyang
End of the Carter Withdrawal
5ASSASSINATION AND AFTERMATH
Growing Domestic Tensions
The Coming of Chun Doo Hwan
The Kwangju Uprising
The Fight to Save Kim Dae Jung
6TERROR AND TALK
The Negotiating Track
Floods and Face-to-Face Talks
Kim Il Sung and the Soviet Connection
7THE BATTLE FOR DEMOCRACY IN SEOUL
Chun’s Succession Struggle
The Election of 1987
8THE GREAT OLYMPIC COMING-OUT PARTY
The Coming of the Olympics
The Bombing of KAL Flight 858
The Rise of Nordpolitik
Washington Launches a Modest Initiative
9MOSCOW SWITCHES SIDES
The Roots of Change
Gorbachev Meets Roh
The Shevardnadze Mission
“How Long Will the Red Flag Fly?”
Soviet–South Korean Economic Negotiations
10CHINA SHIFTS ITS GROUND
A Visit to North Korea
China Changes Course
11JOINING THE NUCLEAR ISSUE
The Origins of the Nuclear Program
Nuclear Diplomacy: The American Weapons
First Steps
The December Accords
The Coming of the Inspectors
First Inspections
From Accommodation to Crisis
12WITHDRAWAL AND ENGAGEMENT
The Light-Water-Reactor Plan
Kim Young Sam Blows the Whistle
The Season of Crisis Begins
13SHOWDOWN OVER NUCLEAR WEAPONS
The Defueling Crisis
The Military Track
The Deepening Conflict
Carter in Pyongyang
14DEATH AND ACCORD
The End of an Era
The Succession of Kim Jong Il
The Framework Negotiations
Fallout from the Agreed Framework
The Kim Jong Il Regime
Visit to Pyongyang
The Struggle over the Reactors
15NORTH KOREA IN CRISIS
Political Earthquake in Seoul
Summit Diplomacy and the Four-Party Proposal
The Submarine Incursion
North Korea’s Steep Decline
The Passage of Hwang Jang Yop
The Two Koreas in Time of Trouble
16TURN TOWARD ENGAGEMENT
Into the Heavens, Under the Earth
Toward an Aid-Based State
Perry to the Rescue
Toward the June Summit
Summit in Pyongyang
Engaging the United States
17THE END OF THE AGREED FRAMEWORK
A Rocky Start
The Impact of 9/11
Threads Come Together: Japan–North Korea Talks
Slouching Toward the Cliff
Kim Jong Il’s Progress
The Unquiet Americans
The Morning After
18TROUBLE IN THE US-ROK ALLIANCE
Problems for Diplomacy
Sunshine, Barely
Tensions Rise
The Six-Party Mirage
Nuclear Peek-a-Boo
A Year of Zigzags
The End of KEDO
Traction, at Last
Rumble in Punggye
19THE EMPEROR’S NEW CLOTHES
Signs of Succession
Diplomatic Downturn
A Terrible Start
Clinton’s Visit
Turning to the South
A Second North-South Summit, but Not a Third
Secret Talks, Public Clashes
The Rise of Chinese Influence
Rare Backlash
Yeonpyeong Island
Kim Jong Il’s Death and Beyond
The New Look
AFTERWORD
The Great Leadership Divide
New Heights
The Chinese Shadow
An Uneasy Peace
Principal Korean Figures in the Text
Acknowledgments
Notes and Sources
Index
Photographs follow page 264.
PREFACE TO THE NEW EDITION
In the twelve years since Don Oberdorfer finished updating his well-respected account of the events and personalities that shaped Korean history after the Korean War, much has happened on the divided peninsula, yet the situation remains frozen in many ways. The South is richer than ever, but is facing the same serious demographic problems that plague much of the industrialized world—low birthrates, wrenching changes in the traditional family structure, underutilization of its educated younger generations, and the need to develop social safety nets to deal with an aging population. All of these challenges have been compounded by the South’s ongoing confrontation with North Korea—a confrontation that, in some ways, has become more dangerous than at any time in the past thirty years.
North Korea is today no closer to achieving its economic goals than it has ever been and is falling further and further behind the rest of the countries in Northeast Asia. Internal pressures are growing from a population no longer as docile as it once was, nor as willing to accept the promises of a better tomorrow from a state that the people now realize cannot provide even for their basic needs. Meanwhile, development of nuclear weapons, a goal of North Korea’s for the past three decades, has not brought it security.
The one new element in the North is the advent of a young leader educated, for at least a few years, in the West. Kim Jong Un is an unknown quantity to the outside world, but in his first eighteen months in power he has demonstrated that he is prepared to lead the country in new directions. At times he is more confrontational than his father, Kim Jong Il, but he is no less capable of keeping his neighbors on edge.
Over the past decade, China has emerged as a player in Korea as it has not been for well over a hundred years. How far Beijing is willing to assert itself on the Korean peninsula is not yet clear, though everyone in Asia knows that they are watching an emerging China replace the influence of what appears to be, by contrast, a diminished United States.
When Don Oberdorfer asked if I would help revise and update The Two Koreas, it was a simple decision to make. After forty years in Washington, all of them focused on Asia (indeed, virtually all of them focused on Korea), it was an offer I could not refuse. I knew that to match Don’s experience was impossible, though his name ended up opening many doors for me as I conducted interviews. Matching the rhythm and richness of the previous editions’ prose was a goal I set early, because the impact of the story of The Two Koreas is not just in the content but in the telling. Throughout the first sixteen chapters, Don frequently referred to his own experience and observations of people and events, using the first-person pronoun. For the sake of consistency, we decided to continue that practice in the three new chapters, that is, the first-person pronoun refers to Don. Again, for the sake of consistency, in the new chapters my own involvement in events is handled in the third person.
Like Don, I am
not a historian, though I lived some of the history in this book and saw firsthand at least some of what unfolded in the years covered in the three new chapters. Many people helped me learn what I did not know, and I hope I have done a decent job of telling the story as they saw it. Part of the task before me was updating the earlier sixteen chapters, if there was anything left to add. I knew if anyone would have a grasp of new information on old events, it would be the scholars at the Wilson Center’s Cold War History Project. They did, and their work deserves great respect.
Johns Hopkins University and the Pacific Century Institute supported this project; it would not have been possible without them. I am especially grateful to Spencer Kim for his backing and encouragement in this endeavor. Stanford University’s Center of International Security and Cooperation has given me an academic home for many years, and my ongoing contact with CISAC’s experts and scholars has been invaluable.
My greatest disappointment is that the North Koreans, despite repeated requests, would not take the opportunity Don and I offered them to contribute their perspective to this new edition. Someday, officials in Pyongyang will understand that a history of their country written without them does them no favors. Apparently, that day has not yet come.
It soon becomes obvious to anyone who deals with Korea for more than a few years that it is a drama on many levels, with great historical forces grinding at a people who for more than a hundred years have not been left in the peace and quiet that their country, with its rows of hills shrouded in morning mist, might offer in abundance. Perhaps the next edition of this book can end on a happy note. But as Don observed in his preface to the second edition, “The outcome of the drama on the Korean peninsula is still beyond our reach.” For this third edition, the story remains unfinished, and, sadly, the dangers remain profound.
—Robert Carlin, Washington, May 2013
PREFACE TO THE SECOND EDITION
We are now traveling the length of free Korea by troop train, from the southern tip, the port of Pusan, to almost the farthest point therefrom, Inchon on the northwest coast. . . . Our first impressions, at Pusan, were miserable and pathetic. The dirtiest children I have ever seen anywhere evaded MPs around the train to beg from GIs. One boy crawled around the train on his only leg; what had been his left one was off at the thigh. When our train pulled out, several boys threw rocks at the train. . . . Out of Pusan, however, the picture is better. The Korean countryside is quite mountainous, with villages in the little stretches of valleys between the rugged, unadorned crags. The people in the villages till the soil and wash in the muddy water holes, and the children do God-knows-what. They line the sides of the railroad and shout, “hello, hello” at the troop train, hoping to be thrown cigarettes or candy or something of value.