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978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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No Exit from Pakistan
America’s Tortured Relationship
with Islamabad
DANIEL S. MARKEY
A Council on Foreign Relations Book
© in this web service Cambridge University Press
www.cambridge.org
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, ny 10013-2473, usa
Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.
It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of
education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107623590
© Daniel S. Markey 2013
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2013
Printed in the United States of America
A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Markey, Daniel Seth, 1973– author.
No exit from Pakistan : America’s tortured relationship with Islamabad / Daniel S. Markey.
pages : maps ; cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 (hardback : alkaline paper) – isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 (paperback) 1. United States – Foreign relations – Pakistan.
2. Pakistan – Foreign relations – United
States. 3. Anti-Americanism – Pakistan. 4. Pakistan – Politics and government.
5. Pakistan – Strategic aspects.
I. Title.
e183.8.p18m375
2013
327.7305491–dc23
2013019456
isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 Hardback
isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party Internet websites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.
© in this web service Cambridge University Press
www.cambridge.org
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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No Exit from Pakistan
America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad
This book tells the story of the tragic and often tormented relation-
ship between the United States and Pakistan. Pakistan’s internal trou-
bles have already threatened U.S. security and international peace, and
Pakistan’s rapidly growing population, nuclear arsenal, and relation-
ships with China and India will continue to force it upon America’s
geostrategic map in new and important ways over the coming decades.
This book explores the main trends in Pakistani society that will help
determine its future; traces the wellsprings of Pakistani anti-American
sentiment through the history of U.S.-Pakistan relations from 1947
to 2001; assesses how Washington made and implemented policies
regarding Pakistan since the terrorist attacks on the United States on
September 11, 2001; and analyzes how regional dynamics, especially
the rise of China, will likely shape U.S.-Pakistan relations. It concludes
with three options for future U.S. strategy, described as defensive insu-
lation, military-first cooperation, and comprehensive cooperation. The
book explains how Washington can prepare for the worst, aim for the
best, and avoid past mistakes.
Daniel S. Markey is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations
(CFR), where he specializes in security and governance issues in South
Asia. From 2003 to 2007, Dr. Markey held the South Asia portfolio on
the Secretary’s Policy Planning Staff at the U.S. Department of State.
Prior to government service, he taught in the Department of Politics
at Princeton University, where he also served as executive director of
Princeton’s Research Program in International Security. Dr. Markey
earned his bachelor’s degree in international studies from the Johns
Hopkins University and his doctorate in politics from Princeton Uni-
versity. He completed a postdoctoral fellowship at Harvard Univer-
sity’s Olin Institute for Strategic Studies. Dr. Markey served as project
director of the CFR-sponsored Independent Task Force Report on U.S.
Strategy in Pakistan and Afghanistan (2010). He has published articles
in Foreign Affairs, The National Interest, The American Interest, Foreign Policy, and Security Studies among other journals. His commen-
tary has been featured in many newspapers, including the New York
Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, and International Herald Tribune. He has been awarded grants from the
MacArthur and Smith Richardson foundations to support his research,
including regular trips to Pakistan and elsewhere in Asia.
© in this web service Cambridge University Press
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Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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© in this web service Cambridge University Press
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978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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A Council on Foreign Relations Book
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan mem-
bership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource
for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educa-
tors and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in
order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices
facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, the CFR carries
out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs
to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign
policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in
Washington, D.C., and oth
er cities where senior government officials, mem-
bers of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with
CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a
Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to
produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign
policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign
Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings
and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and pro-
viding up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American
foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org.
© in this web service Cambridge University Press
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Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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© in this web service Cambridge University Press
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Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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No Exit from Pakistan
America’s Tortured Relationship
with Islamabad
DANIEL S. MARKEY
A Council on Foreign Relations Book
© in this web service Cambridge University Press
www.cambridge.org
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
Frontmatter
More information
32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, ny 10013-2473, usa
Cambridge University Press is part of the University of Cambridge.
It furthers the University’s mission by disseminating knowledge in the pursuit of
education, learning, and research at the highest international levels of excellence.
www.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107623590
© Daniel S. Markey 2013
This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without the written
permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2013
Printed in the United States of America
A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Markey, Daniel Seth, 1973– author.
No exit from Pakistan : America’s tortured relationship with Islamabad / Daniel S. Markey.
pages : maps ; cm
Includes bibliographical references and index.
isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 (hardback : alkaline paper) – isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 (paperback) 1. United States – Foreign relations – Pakistan.
2. Pakistan – Foreign relations – United
States. 3. Anti-Americanism – Pakistan. 4. Pakistan – Politics and government.
5. Pakistan – Strategic aspects.
I. Title.
e183.8.p18m375
2013
327.7305491–dc23
2013019456
isbn 978-1-107-04546-0 Hardback
isbn 978-1-107-62359-0 Paperback
Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of urls for external or third-party Internet websites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.
The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.
© in this web service Cambridge University Press
www.cambridge.org
Cambridge University Press
978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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Contents
Maps
page ix
Acknowledgments
xi
1
No Exit
1
2
The Four Faces of Pakistan
29
3
Why Do They Hate Us?
72
4
U-Turn to Drift: U.S.-Pakistan Relations during the
Musharraf Era
105
5
Great Expectations to Greater Frustrations: U.S.-Pakistan
Relations after Musharraf
136
6
From the Outside-In: U.S.-Pakistan Relations in the
Regional Context
169
7
America’s Options
200
Index
239
vii
© in this web service Cambridge University Press
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978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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Maps
TURKMENISTAN
C H I N A
Siachen
N
Baltistan
Glacier
A
a
Azad
T
Kashmir
L
I S
Kabul
INE
Abbottabad
OF CONTROL
N
Torkham
aktunkhw
A
Jammu and
Federally
Peshawar
H
Administered
Islamabad
Kashmir
G
Tribal Areas
Rawalpindi
F
(FATA)
yber P
A
h
K
sud
Wagah
Kandahar
In
Faisalabad
Lahore
P u n j a b
Chaman
Quetta
C hagai Hills
B a l o c h i s t a n
I R A N
dus
In
Sindh
I N D I A
Hyderabad
Gwadar
Karachi
0
100
200
300
400 km
A r a b i a n S e a
0
50
100
150
200
250 miles
Pakistan.
ix
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978-1-107-04546-0 - No Exit from Pakistan: America’s Tortured Relationship with Islamabad Daniel S. Markey
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1000 km
s
Dhaka
Guwahati
Chittagong
Lhasa
AN
500 miles
s
DESH
a
750
Thimphu
Bay of
BHUT
BANGLA-
Bengal
n
a rt
i
u p a
y
Ganges
a
m h
Kolkata
500
t
a r B
n
250
a
Patna
ishakhapatnam
u
ibet
Katmandu
Cuttack
V
o
250
l
M
CHINA
AL
aranasiV
Plateau of
NEP
a
0
0
n
Lucknow
u
l
Nagpur
m
n
Allahabad
Hyderabad
Khotan
nges
Desert
u
a
akla Makan
i
G
Kanpur
T
Bhopal
K
Meerut
Aksai Chin
INDIA
H
Agra
korum
AN
Delhi
ra
a
Amritsar
t
Srinagar
r
Pune
Kashgar
K
Ludhiana
e
Indore
s e
Jaipur
s
D
Surat
r
N
Islamabad
i
r a
A
m
h T
KYRGYZST
T
a
Lahore
t
IS
P
Rawalpindi
Multan
a e r G
JIK
Mumbai
A
Faisalabad
T
Rajkot
Ahmedabad
h su
Peshawar
K
Kabul
Dushanbe
u
AN
Hyderabad
s u
d
d n
AN
n i
AN
I
ashkent
Quetta
T
H
AKIST
Kandahar
d
P
n a
Karachi
UZBEKIST
Samarkand
m l e H
AFGHANIST
Herat
Sea