6. See M. O’Sullivan and D. Skilling, “From Great Britain to Little England,” Project Syndicate, March 29, 2017; also M. O’Sullivan and D. Skilling, “Britain Needs to Find a New Role,” London Times, February 6, 2018.
7. I set out some of the choices facing these nations in a Foreign Affairs article with David Skilling: M. O’Sullivan and D. Skilling, “The Lessons of Little States: Small Countries Show the Way Through Brexit,” Foreign Affairs, June 8, 2017, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ireland/2017-06-08/lessons-little-states.
8. “Housing Should Be for Living In, Not for Speculation, Xi Says,” Bloomberg News, October 18, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-18/xi-renews-call-housing-should-be-for-living-in-not-speculation.
9. The historian Nicholas Mansergh tracks India’s development in his book Independence Years: The Selected Indian and Commonwealth Papers of Nicholas Mansergh (Oxford University Press, 2000). And Shashi Taroor’s book Inglorious Empire is worth a read in this regard.
10. I have developed many of these themes in articles coauthored with David Skilling. For example, see M. O’Sullivan and D. Skilling, “At the G20, Look Beyond the Usual Suspects,” Wall Street Journal, September 2, 2016; D. Skilling and M. O’Sullivan, “Small Nations—Not the G-20—Lead the Way,” Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2018, http://www.wsj.com/articles/small-nationsnot-the-g-20lead-the-way-1472771969; D. Skilling and M. O’Sullivan, “Small Countries Are the Canaries in the Coalmine of the World’s Economies,” Irish Times, March 17, 2015, http://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/small-countries-are-the-canaries-in-the-coalmine-of-the-world-s-economies-1.2141952.
11. The Economist Intelligence Unit, “Democracy Index 2017: Free Speech Under Attack,” January 31, 2018, www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?camp aignid=DemocracyIndex2017.
12. For example, the small, northern European states have issued joint opinions on European economic reforms; see Ministry of Finance, “European Finance Ministers’ Joint Statement on the Development of the Economic and Monetary Union,” http://vm.fi/article/-/asset_publisher/valtiovarainministerien-yhteiskannanotto-euroopan-talous-ja-rahaliiton-kehittamisesta.
13. Kim and Millen, Dying for Growth.
14. C. Wyplosz, “When the IMF Evaluates the IMF,” VOX CEPR Policy Portal, February 17, 2017, http://voxeu.org/article/when-imf-evaluates-imf.
15. “Recommendations by the Commission of Experts of the President of the General Assembly on Reforms of the International Monetary and Financial System,” March 19, 2009, https://www.un.org/ga/president/63/letters/recommendation Experts200309.pdf.
16. C. von Clausewitz, On War (Barnes and Noble, 2004), xv.
17. See the Climate Science Special Report put together by bodies such as the Department of Energy and NASA: US Global Change Research Program, Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, vol. 1, edited by D. J. Wuebbles, D. W. Fahey, K. A. Hibbard, et al., 2017, https:// science2017.globalchange.gov/.
18. M. Mildenberger, J. Marlon, P. Howe, and A. Leiserowitz, “The Spatial Distribution of Republican and Democratic Climate Opinions at State and Local Scales,” Climatic Change 145, nos. 3–4 (December 2017), https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-017-2103-0.
19. K. C. Seto, S. Dhakal, et al., “Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning,” in AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, p. 927, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg3/ipcc_wg3_ar5_chapter12.pdf; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, “Livestock a Major Threat to Environment,” November 29, 2006, FAONewsroom, http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/news/2006/1000448/index.html.
20. M. Bloomberg and C. Pope, Climate of Hope (St. Martin’s Press, 2017).
21. “A Digital Geneva Convention to Protect Cyberspace,” Microsoft Policy Papers, https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RW67QH.
Chapter 10: The Hamilton Project
1. Hamilton was also in vogue in US policy circles in the early 1990s, when the Hamilton Project was created by Robert Rubin and others; see http://www.hamiltonproject.org/.
2. A. Hamilton, “The Continentalist, No. VI, [4 July 1782],” Founders Online, National Archives, https://founders.archives.gov/documents/Hamilton/01-03-02-0031.
3. M. K. Curtis, “In Pursuit of Liberty: The Levellers and the American Bill of Rights,” 1991, Constitutional Commentary, 737, https://scholarship.law.umn.edu/concomm/737.
4. Credit Suisse Research Institute, From Spring to Revival: Regime Changes and Economic Transformation, November 2011, p. 15, https://publications.credit-suisse.com/tasks/render/file/index.cfm?fileid=88E49EF1-83E8-EB92-9D5152FC5FD1076F.
5. A European Minister of Economy and Finance, “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council and the European Central Bank,” European Commission, December 6, 2017, https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/info/files/economy-finance/com_823_0.pdf.
6. The proceedings from the Euro at 20 conference are also worth a look; see “The Euro at 20,” IMF Conference, Dublin, Ireland, June 25–26, 2018, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Seminars/Conferences/2018/05/17/the-euro-at-20-dublin. Also see “The Five Presidents’ Report: Completing Europe’s Economic and Monetary Union,” European Commission, June 22, 2015, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/publications/five-presidents-report-completing-europes-economic-and-monetary-union_en.
7. Maddison Historical Statistics, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Historical National Accounts database, University of Groningen, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/na/.
8. “National Security Strategy of the United States of America,” Office of the President of the United States, December 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf.
9. E. Osnos, “Making China Great Again,” New Yorker, January 3, 2018; E. Wong, “A Chinese Empire Reborn,” New York Times, January 5, 2018.
10. “Vice President Mike Pence’s Remarks on the Administration’s Policy towards China,” Hudson Institute, October 4, 2018, https://www.hudson.org/events/1610-vice-president-mike-pence-s-remarks-on-the-administration-s-policy-towards-china102018.
11. Claessens and Kose, “Financial Crises.”
12. P. Pan, “China Rules,” part 1, “The Land That Failed to Fail,” New York Times, November 18, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/11/18/world/asia/china-rules.html.
13. Analysis drawn from data at World Bank Open Data site, https://data.worldbank.org/; Investment Company Institute, “Research and Statistics,” https:// www.ici.org/research/stats.
14. “Foreign Observers Comment on Xi’s Report to CPC Congress,” China Daily, October 18, 2018, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/19thcpcnational congress/2017-10/18/content_33419856.htm.
15. Perkins, The Roosevelt I Knew.
16. Analysis drawn from data at National Bureau of Statistics of China, http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/; Ministry of Civil Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, http://english.gov.cn/state_council/2014/09/09/content_281474986284128.htm.
17. G. Knudsen, “Award Ceremony Speech,” December 10, 1906, The Nobel Prize, https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/1906/ceremony-speech/.
18. J. S. Nye Jr., “The Kindleberger Trap,” Project Syndicate, January 9, 2017, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-kindleberger-trap-by-joseph-s--nye-2017-01?barrier=accesspaylog.
19. M. Abi-Habib, “How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port,” New York Times, June 25, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html.
20. Van Creveld, More on War; Grayling, War.
21. See General Gerasimov’s essay: G. Valery, “The Value of Science in Foresight,” Military Industrial Courier, February 26, 2013, https://www.vpk-news.ru/articles/14632; also H. Foy, “Valery Gerasimov, the General with a Doctrine for Russia,” Financial Times,
September 15, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/7e14a438-989b-11e7-a652-cde3f882dd7b.
22. The US Army Futures Command in Austin, Texas, is one of the areas of thought leadership in new aspects of warfare such as urban-based war.
23. There are already several frameworks in existence to guide ethical work: UNESCO’s Universal Declaration on the Human Genome and Human Rights (November 1997), UNESCO’s International Declaration on Human Genetic Data (October 2003), UNESCO’s Universal Declaration on Bioethics and Human Rights (October 2005), and the European Union’s Additional Protocol to the Convention on Human Rights and Biomedicine Concerning Genetic Testing for Health Purposes (November 2008).
24. J. L. Yellen, “Labor Market Dynamics and Monetary Policy,” speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, August 22, 2014, https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140822a.htm; D. Yagan, “Is the Great Recession Really Over? Longitudinal Evidence of Enduring Employment Impacts,” UC Berkley Working Paper, November 2016, https://eml.berkeley.edu/~yagan/GreatRecessionScars.pdf; G. D. Rudebusch and J. C. Williams, “A Wedge in the Dual Mandate: Monetary Policy and Long-Term Unemployment,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2014-14, May 2014, http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2014-14.pdf.
INDEX
Abenomics, 204
accountability, 78, 79
Africa, 229–230
aging of population, 148
Agreement of the People Twenty-First Century
draft, 97–100
and new entrants in politics, 103–104
purpose, 101, 103
“Agreements of the People”
description, 13, 87
first agreement, 87
as inspiration, 4, 95
as model for the future, 13–14, 96
second and third agreements, 88, 89, 240
Ahamed, Liaquat, 172
airports, 212
Albright, Madeleine, 64
Aliber, Robert, 173
Allegheny County (PA) Family Screening Tool (AFST), 46
Allison, Graham, 224
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), 111
Angell, Norman, 63
anomie, 27, 147
Appleby, Sir Humphrey (character), 133–134
Arab Spring, 104, 108, 117–118
Argentina, 61
Ashton, Catherine, 236
Asia
debt and debt restructuring, 188, 202–203
economy, 226–228
financial approach, 202
Quad and SCO, 244–245
skyscrapers, 212
wealth and expectations, 25
See also specific countries
Asian Tiger economies, 226–227
Atlas Party (fictional), 124
Australia, 217, 220
Autor, David, 35
Bagehot, Walter, 172
Bancor, 265–266
Bank of Japan, 177, 202, 203
bankruptcies, 208–209
banks. See central banks
BBC, 219–220
Berlin, Isaiah, 74
Bernanke, Ben, 65, 175
Bertelsmann Stiftung, 106
Bhagwati, Jagdish, 171
biometric program, 258
biopoliticians idea, 128, 129–131
birthrates and fertility, 50–51
Bismarck, Otto von, 227
“black swan” principle, 72
Blair, Tony, 107
Blinder, Alan, 108
blockchain, 273
Bloom, Nicholas, 143
Bloomberg, Michael, 272
Bloomberg Innovation Index, 260
Bo Xilai, 231
bodies (human), and inequalities, 48
bond markets, 181–183
Boston’s Big Dig, 150
“Boy’s Weeklies” (Orwell), 246–247
Brady, Nicholas, 190
Brady Plan, 190–191
Brat, David, 51
Bretton Woods Conference, 265
Brexit
consequences for Britain, 244, 246, 248–251
debate, 247–248
and levelling, 246, 247–248
post-Brexit scenarios for UK, 250–256
“prophecy” of, 87
significance, 247, 252
Brown, Gordon, 107, 139–140
Brunel, Isambard, 251
Buffet, Warren, 167
Buolamwini, Joy, 46
Bush, George H. W., 138
business cycle, 138–140, 142
Cadbury, Adrian, 205
Callaghan, Jim, 249
Cantor, Eric, 51
capital, and wealth inequality, 43–44
Carrington, Lord, 127–128
Carville, James, 181
Case, Anne, 44
Case, Steve, 129
Castaneda, Jorge, 221
central banks
and bubbles, 173
and crises, 172, 173
and debt, 16–18, 174, 176–177, 189–190
and financial crisis of 2008, 173–174, 175, 179
forecasts, 68, 170
future actions, 183–185
history, 171–173
in multipolar world, 266–267
power and influence, 5, 168, 169–170, 171, 172–173, 179, 266–267
as problem, 16
and QE, 16–18, 174–179, 183, 190
role and intervention, 170–171
understanding of, 167–168, 170–171
See also Federal Reserve System
Charles I (King), 3, 81, 82, 91
Chernow, Ron, 277
Chidley, Katherine
and change, 134
and economic growth, 155–156
learning of new role, 134–135, 164–165
potential solutions, 149–151, 165
reality of situation, 135–137, 148–149
Chile, 118
China
central bank and house prices, 174
Communist Party, 230–232
consumer culture, 289, 290
debt problem, 16, 186, 188, 192, 193–194, 198–199
debt restructuring, 197–202
domestic security, 232–233
economy, 216, 227, 228–229, 232, 288, 289–290, 301
financial services and system, 197, 291–292
genetics and gene editing, 298
and globalization, 216
Hart and respect in relations, 256–257
international influence, 294
Levellers-type group, 232–233
manufacturing, 34, 35
military and navy, 292–293
next recession, 76, 185–186, 198, 291
as pole in multipolar world, 18–19, 222, 223–224, 279, 288–295
power and influence, 6, 223–224, 229–230
regional economics, 201
rule of law, 294–295
social stability and infrastructure, 290–292
technology and Big Tech, 224, 231, 272–273
as threat, 288–289
trade and dispute with US, 33, 34–35, 216, 232
transformation, 228–229
wealth inequality, 42
and Western business, 216–217
Churchill, Winston, 7
cities, 151, 270–272
Citizens’ Assembly (Ireland), 110
civic virtue and civic ethic, 152
civil service, 133–134
Clarke, George, 84
Clarke, William, 84
The Clash of Ideas (book), 73
Clausewitz, Claus von, 267
climate change, 9–10, 48–49, 268–272
Colbert, Jean-Baptiste, and Colbertism, 227
Commonwealth countries, 256–257
communications, 49, 107
Congressional Budget Office, 187
constitutional democracy. See democracy
constitutions, 280–282
consumer culture, 289–290
c
orporate governance, 203–205
corruption and transparency, 262
countries
changes coming, 20
economic growth and policy, 14–15
first globalization, 60–61
greatness and success, 153, 157
inequality levels, 38–39, 40
intangible infrastructure, 159–162
microlevel and policy discovery, 163–164
national development, 157–159
next levelling, 77
old order breakdown, 5–6
rise and fall, 151, 152–156
role in multipolar world, 18–19
strength, 158–159, 162–165
values and rights, 239
wealth inequality, 42
Crabtree, James, 43
Crazy Rich Asians (film), 25
crises
and central banks, 172, 173
and change, 104, 105–106
and new ideas, 73
next recession, 185–186
politics and economics, 66, 104, 105–106
and SDR bonds, 265–266
See also financial crisis of 2008
Cromwell, Oliver, 3, 81–82, 91, 94
cryptocurrencies, 67–68
culture, and soft power, 219–220
currency
Bancor, 265–266
and Brexit, 248
forecasting, 154–155
and QE, 177
rise and fall of nations, 153–154, 248
US dollar, 154, 155, 226, 267
Currie, Janet, 45
cyberwarfare and cybersecurity, 264, 272, 274–275
daily life, patterns, 50
Dalio, Ray, 55
Darling, Alistair, 199–200
Davies, Jim, 42
Dawes Plan, 191–192
Deaton, Angus, 44, 45
debt
and central banks, 16–18, 174, 176–177, 189–190
future international conference proposal, 17, 192–194, 201–202
and IMF, 265–266
Levellers as model, 97
next levelling, 77, 304–305
next recession, 185–186, 191, 192–193
old debt, 186–187
problem of debt and indebtedness, 16–18, 168, 186–190, 191, 205–206, 304–305
reduction strategies, 188–190
restructuring schemes in past, 190–192
restructuring schemes of future, 194–202, 203
and risks, 173–174, 184–185, 201, 205–207, 209
solution for, 17, 184, 207–208