Publishing is Dead. Books are Dead. But it doesn't matter because no one is reading anyway.
Richard Murphy
Publishing is Dead.
Books are Dead.
But it doesnt matter,
because no one is reading anyway.
Richard Murphy
Edinburgh College of Art
Stage 4 CVCS Dissertation
Product Design
Publishing is Dead. Books are Dead. But it doesnt matter because no one is reading anyway
Richard Murphy
~
Publishing is Dead. Books are Dead. But it doesnt matter because no one is reading anyway
Copyright ? 2009 by Richard A Murphy
All rights reserved.
Abstract
Publishing is Dead. Books are Dead. But it doesnt matter, because no one is reading anyway.
This dissertation is a study of the paradigm shift of books into a digital world. It looks at the strengths and weaknesses of both digital and printed literature. The publishing houses that produce this literature are undergoing significant changes and so that to has been considered in the discussion. The opportunities for further development of both mediums are examined. The question of whether the changes are being pushed by investment of culture is raised and debated. Ultimately it concludes that both formats need to develop, grow and find their own unique uses, but that the change in market and cultural behaviors means that there is more opportunity for publishing and literature than ever before.
About this Text
This is a dissertation written for my final year in Edinburgh College of Art. I have released in a digital format to reflect the structure of my argument.
It was originally written with extensive illustrations, however I have removed them so as not to infringe any copyright.
This is the first edition of this publication. I will be releasing an updated version, which will not be written for my studies in the start of the New Year, 2010 without restrictions on word count and formatting. This will allow me to go into much greater depth both in my research and in my conclusions.
Any feedback would be gladly accepted.
Publishing is Dead. Books are Dead. But it doesnt matter, because no one is reading anyway.
Introduction: Changes In Industry
Please understand that book publishing is an organized hobby, not a business. The return on equity and return on time for authors and for publishers is horrendous. If you're doing it for the money, you're going to be disappointed. (Godin, 2005)
Books are a huge, global market, but are also a very important cultural force. However for more than 25 years, literary reading has been declining. (National Endowment for Arts, 2009) Publishing too, from end to end, is facing massive challenges; the creators are publishing independently, margins are reducing within publishing houses and wave after wave of technology is taking an increasing share of this environmentally unsustainable market.
Mobile and digital technology is taking text where print cannot follow. EBooks are slated to completely kill publishing and the printed book, as we know it: with the ability to carry a lifetimes reading and Internet connectivity to access the worlds libraries, in something half the size of a novel. The literary world is facing a revolution similar to what has and is still happening to the music industry.
The gramophone dates back to 1887, and records, as we know them to 1907. (Schoenherr, 2005) Cassettes were set to replace LPs but they didnt, nor did Minidisks, CDs or MP3s. In fact all formats are still in use. Digital music is currently the dominate format, but all the other formats are very much still in use and indeed sold. They are all part of the Music Eco-System, each with a role, a use and unique user group.
The printing press dates back to 1440 AD (Bellis, N.D.), and so it seems unlikely that a 570 year old technology, that has been one of humanities greatest cultural influences, is going to be completely sideswiped by this new digital movement.
The question is; how will the it all change?
Research Question
The eBook and Reader markets are currently experiencing exponentially accelerating adoption figures. How will this change the value of printed books, and how will it affect Publishers. Will there be any significant change in the market and what will it mean for the publisher, the value of printed book and the reader?
Are books dead, or are eBooks just a fad? Turns out it might be neither.
Aims
The aim of this dissertation is to show that despite massive market, financial and environmental pressures; book publishing is not dead and in fact the growth of eBooks is a positive change for books, their publishers and society in general.
The structure of my argument roughly follows the trend of the larger discussion. It will start with an analysis of eBook, their strengths, weaknesses and opportunities. Then a study of current publishing model of books, first considering the challenges they face and then their opportunities. The final part of the argument will be a discussion to clarify if these changes are being pushed by investment or by culture.
I will not be evaluating educational, professional, scientific or reference publications. This is a very separate industry, with different publishers, users and dynamics. I will also not be examining in what forces have driven the changes in reader habits, as it is a complex socio-cultural debate that is too complex for this forum. The significance of the current economic climate cannot be ignored and I will refer to it, but due to the extent of the issue I will not be looking at it in depth in this dissertation.
Softbook
This unit is not the on todays Reader market, however it was one of the first dedicated eBook readers. Designed by IDEO, the soft book was released in 1998 by SoftBook Press. It was made to resemble a printed book with its leather cover. Many of the features on the SoftBook were the foundations for todays readers. It had a 6x8 inch touchscreen, could store up to 100,000 pages (through expandable memory) and a 5-hour battery life. That however was not the clever part. The SoftBook did not use an Internet connection or require a computer to upload and download data (from its dedicated SoftBookstore.) It had a built in modem and connected directly to a telephone jack. If left plugged in overnight it would automatically download the Wall Street Journal. (Chatvik, 2000)
Sony Reader
The first model was released in 2006, despite slow initial sales; in 2008 it sold approximately 300,000 thousand units and captured a 35% market share. (Wikipedia, 2009) Newer models can do 7000 page turns on a single charge and the latest release (the PRS-900) has wireless connectivity with 3G and can also be turned and used vertically as well as horizontally. Sony also provides a (USA & Canada only) digital bookstore called Sony Connect. (Sony, 2009)
Amazon Kindle
The Kindle is Amazons own branded Reader. It was launched in several stages but the most significant development was that there was a huge jump in sales when Kindle 2 was released. Kindle eBook sales are now 35% of total sales when Kindle editions are available. (Blodget, 2009) It also has extended its reach to the iPhone with an app that allows texts bought from Amazon to be read on the phone. (Inoescu 2009)
iPhone
Launched in the 3rd quarter of 2007, the iPhone has sold almost 34million (Wikicommons, 2009) units and had more than 1billion downloads from its app store (Apple, 2009). Due to its central function being to serve as a phone, it has built in 3G and wireless capabilities (the first model did not have 3G) and therefore has an advantage over most eBook readers. It also means most customers always carry it with them. It also has other technologies that have been used in the development
of story telling via the iPhone, including GPS, compass (3Gs only), camera, touchscreen, and motion sensitivity. According to market analyst Flurry.com after games, eBooks are the 2nd largest download category from the app store (Flurry, 2009). It is smaller than any dedicated reader, and subsequently more portable. (Apple, 2009)
Barnes & Noble Nook
Released in November of 2009, the Barnes and Noble Nook is described as the worlds most advanced eBook reader. It has the specification to back this statement up. Like the iPhone it has 3G and wireless connectivity, a touch screen in fact two touchscreens and a direct link to its manufactures own electronic store. The top screen is the low-power, reader screen; it uses E-Ink in 16 shades of grey and is touch sensitive. The lower screen is a full colour touch sensitive screen that has a coverflow style access to the Barnes and Noble eBook store, and can be used as a keyboard to make notes to the text being currently being read.
It has a couple of other features, which make it unique. It does not enforce the same barriers to usage that the kindle does. EBooks bought from B&N can be then used on a blackberry, iPhone, Mac, PC or any other reader. Books can also be downloaded from the Google Books project. Barnes and Noble have a range of stores (branded and not) to support this. (Barnes & Noble, 2009)
This is happening: The Opportunities of Digital
Technology is stalking your book case. More than 10 million users are expected to have adopted the eBook system by 2010.
Figure 1: eBook Wholesale Revenues (2009) Available from Openbook.org
Figure 7, shows the accelerating growth curve of eBooks. Electronic libraries are growing too; Barnes and Noble have more than one million titles and Amazon has more than 700,000. (Barnes & Noble; Amazon 2009) Add to this the latest figures which suggest more than 900,000 Readers will be sold over the holiday period. This sales pattern is moving against the current economic trends (Gelles, 2009.) Forester Research (2009) Estimates that sales could double in 2010 to six million units.
"We've been saying for some time now that this Christmas is going to be 'e-reader Christmas" Neil Jones, founder and chief executive of Interead, maker of the COOL-ER e-reader (Physorg, 2009)
Existing benefits of Readers and eBooks
The first benefit stated by most Readers is their capacity for storage, few Gigabytes of storage is enough for thousands of texts. With new display technology the battery will last for thousands of page turns, enough to go through dozens of books on a single charge. Add to this their ability to search, cross reference, highlight, tag and annotate and the Reader can show that it has truly extended the functionality of the written word.
Many free texts are being downloaded, and for the most part these are the classics, (e.g. Charles Dickens, Lewis Carroll, Homer and Oscar Wilde) as the copyright has long expired. Gutenberg has more than 30,000 free texts with 100,000 available through affiliated sites. (Gutenberg, 2009)
The latest Readers can download content on the move too. Immediate streaming (the ability to download and/or view content straight to the device) has been made even faster and more viable with recent developments such as 3G and Wi-Fi. It is well phrased on Amazons own site as books in 60 seconds. (2009) These technologies were primarily used on Laptops and Smartphones, but are now migrating to Readers. It is this combination of features that gives the devices the flexibility and usability for work, study and leisure.
It is important to consider that a book is distinct from its contents literature. Therefore, what is critical is presenting the information in the most useful and meaningful manner possible.
In many ways eBooks and Readers are more appropriate, for Generation Y users, than printed novels. They provide a more functional, lighter, faster experience that is interactive and adaptable. When books are competing for space against TV, Internet, Mp3s and constant communication, readers are more able to compete for leisure time.
Publishers
In their most basic forms eBooks are very easy to produce. Once the conversion software has been purchased, there are almost no further costs, since the 1990s almost all texts have been created in digital format and so are ready for conversion. Distribution is also significantly cheaper than the physical distributions need for printed volumes, once a text is uploaded to a central server and it can then be automatically distributed to thousands of libraries and electronic stores, an example of one such service is Overdrive.com (2009).
The development of supporting products is not traditionally an area looked at by publishers, but it could be essential for electronic publishing. Books have a well-developed eco-system from bookcases to bookmarks. There is now a new eco-system still to be developed and stakeholders in the industry are keen to create new markets and profits are supporting new platforms developing their ecosystems. The largest Reader manufactures are attempting to establish their own electronic stores. Apple Inc. is a great example of developing a products eco-system. Apple products are designed to sustain their associated sales. The iTunes store links directly to their hardware, as does the App store; this is made possible by their products hardware and software. Supplementary to this is a huge range of accessories and add-ons from speakers to holders and much more. Combine this with emerging technology and Reader developments and there exists a huge opportunity for product development.
The Apple App store has proven that this can be a very lucrative market, with some applications making $750, 000 dollars in just three weeks. (Flurry, 2009)
The development of this product set means there is the scope for development of a new eco-system. It is a possibility that can be more than just a revenue stream for developers; it is a path to creating ownership. By giving users the opportunity to customize and accessorize their Readers, there is the potential for them to become emotionally attached, for owners to see these digital platforms as an extension of themselves. Just as we do with cars, phones and many other objects.
Potential Developments
There are huge opportunities still ahead, not just financially or technologically but aesthetically and developing interactions.
An interesting concept was proposed by Lindsay Irvine of the Guardian (2009), which was the idea of a self-assembled anthology as more short stories are published, and easily compiled. People may publish groupings of these stories, like one would with a playlist or mix-tape.
Possibly the most interesting concept released to date is a geo and chrono-sensitive digital graphic novel called The Carrier by Stopwatch Media
This iPhone app is a multimedia experience that unfolds in real time over 10 days. Simply put, if something happens in the story at 3:21 am in the comic then you read it at 3:21 in real life.
Additionally, The Carrier takes advantage of the iPhone as a platform to include geo-location based extras and emails that compliment the story, creating a digital experience outside the panels& (iTunes, 2009)
These concepts show that the development of rich digital content has only just begun and shows that the already strong eBook has much potential for further experimentation and development. The networks and industries around digital content are likely to continue to grow as the medium does.
There are several platforms for eboks and digital literature; PCs (both online and offline) Phones, MP3 players, Tablets as well as dedicated Readers. In each area the technology is continually developing. eInk is the technology that has made eBooks truly portable and brought them to a much larger market and the colour version should be available late in 2010 and bring a better user experience with it. However the biggest game changer may be yet to come. Experts are anticipating the (as yet unconfirmed) unit to be released in 2010. Its anticipated that it could take share from all units (readers, phones and other tablet devices), and importantly offer a better reading experience due to its significantly higher resolution.
Problems with Digital
Section Introduction: Actual effect so far on the market and factors for that, including; lack of value, high c
ost and limited use.
Digital books are still somewhat of a novelty and until recently there has been a bottleneck in eBook adoption. Perhaps they are solving a problem that does not exist. Books are already a portable, durable format and who really needs gigabytes of storage for tens of texts. For example War and Peace converts to approximately 2.2mb in digital format. Therefore about 350 copies fit on a CD or more than 36,000 copies on a standard 8GB iPhone. How many people need access to that much literature, all at once, with them wherever they go?
N.B. War and peace is typically 1463 pages and more than 50,000 words. Who reads this much?
EBooks are potentially a fad that will pass through revolution and into a small evolution. Despite a 68.4% increase in eBook sales in 2008 and 177% increase to Aug 2009 they still only represent 1.5% of the American book industry. Which is approximately the same as audiobooks (Mui, 2009).
